LEADER 03847nam 2200625Ia 450 001 9910817535203321 005 20200520144314.0 010 $a1-4623-9512-0 010 $a1-4527-1778-8 010 $a9786612843167 010 $a1-4518-7248-8 010 $a1-282-84316-8 035 $a(CKB)3170000000055184 035 $a(EBL)1608142 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000940714 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11528525 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940714 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10956001 035 $a(PQKB)10898361 035 $a(OCoLC)680613543 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2009101 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1608142 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055184 100 $a20041202d2009 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aWhat should inflation targeting countries do when oil prices rise and drop fast? /$fprepared by Nicoletta Batini and Eugen Tereanu 205 $a1st ed. 210 $a[Washington D.C.] $cInternational Monetary Fund$d2009 215 $a1 online resource (34 p.) 225 1 $aIMF working paper ;$vWP/09/101 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4519-1678-7 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aContents; I. Introduction; Tables; 1. Oil Price Developments; II. Relevant Literature; III. Methodology, Data and Calibration; IV. Optimal Policy Responses and Optimal Horizons to a 2000s-Type Supply Shock; A. Optimal Policy Responses under a 2000s-Type Oil Shock; 2. Welfare Statistics-Various Oil Regimes; B. Optimal Horizons for a 2000s-Type Oil Shock; 3. Optimal Policy Horizons Under Alternative Oil Regimes; 4. Optimal Policy Horizons Under Alternative Oil Regimes (? = 0.3); V. Optimal Rules Under Imperfect Credibility; 5. Optimal Feedback Horizons Under Alternative Oil Regimes 327 $aVI. Bracing for Future ShocksVII. Concluding Remarks and Policy Implimentations; 6. Optimized Feedback Coefficients Under Three Alternative Future Oil Scenarios; References 330 3 $aAfter a long period of global price stability, in 2008 inflation increased sharply following unprecedented increases in the price of oil and other commodities, notably food. Although inflation remained lower and growth higher in inflation targeting countries than elsewhere, almost everywhere price stability seemed in jeopardy as consumer prices kept surging and central banks struggled to maintain expectations anchored. The rapid drop in energy and food prices that later accompanied the world slowdown helped avert the worse, but inflation stayed high in many inflation targeting countries. This paper uses a small open-economy DSGE model to design the correct monetary policy response to a protracted supply shock of the kind observed today, and explains how to choose optimal policy horizons under such shock. Using a version of the model with Kalman learning, the paper also evaluates the implications of a loss of target credibility, showing how rules must be adjusted when the authorities' commitment to low inflation has been eroded. The appropriate response to future evolutions of the price of oil, including to a large downward correction as recently observed, is also evaluated. 410 0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/09/101. 606 $aPetroleum products$xPrices 606 $aInflation (Finance) 615 0$aPetroleum products$xPrices. 615 0$aInflation (Finance) 676 $a332.152 700 $aBatini$b Nicoletta$01655456 701 $aTereanu$b Eugen$01660811 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910817535203321 996 $a?What Should Inflation Targeting Countries Do When Oil Prices Rise and Drop Fast??$94016291 997 $aUNINA