LEADER 05007oam 22010814 450 001 9910817459903321 005 20200520144314.0 010 $a1-4623-9421-3 010 $a1-4527-1887-3 010 $a1-283-51486-9 010 $a1-4519-0855-5 010 $a9786613827319 035 $a(CKB)3360000000443659 035 $a(EBL)3014480 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000940046 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11479993 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940046 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10948362 035 $a(PQKB)10908861 035 $a(OCoLC)694141156 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC3014480 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2006059 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2006059 035 $a(EXLCZ)993360000000443659 100 $a20020129d2006 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 13$aAn Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts /$fAllan Timmermann 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2006. 215 $a1 online resource (108 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $a"March 2006." 311 $a1-4518-6319-5 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $a""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY""; ""II. DESCRIPTION OF WEO DATASET""; ""III. PROPERTIES OF OPTIMAL FORECASTS""; ""IV. EMPIRICAL RESULTS""; ""V. ANALYSIS OF STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE""; ""VI. CAN THE WEO FORECAST ERRORS BE PREDICTED?""; ""VII. DIRECTIONAL ACCURACY""; ""VIII. REVISIONS FROM BOARD TO PUBLISHED FORECASTS""; ""IX. RECENT PERFORMANCE OF WEO FORECASTS""; ""X. LONG-RUN FORECASTING PERFORMANCE FOR G-7 ECONOMIES""; ""XI. COMPARISON OF WEO AND CONSENSUS FORECASTS""; ""XII. FORECAST COMBINATIONS""; ""XIII. RECOMMENDATIONS""; ""XIV. CONCLUSION""; ""References"" 330 3 $aThe World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forecasts. This paper conducts a series of statistical tests to evaluate the quality of the WEO forecasts for a very large cross section of countries, with particular emphasis on the recent recession and recovery. It assesses whether forecasts were unbiased and informationally efficient, and characterizes the process whereby WEO forecasts get revised as the time to the point of the forecast draws closer. Finally, the paper assess whether forecasts can be improved by combining WEO forecasts with the Consensus forecasts. The results suggest that the performance of the WEO forecasts is similar to that of the Consensus forecasts. While WEO forecasts for many variables in many countries meet basic quality standards in some, if not all, dimensions, the paper raises a number of concerns with current forecasting performance. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2006/059 606 $aEconomic development 606 $aEconomic forecasting$xEvaluation 606 $aInternational economic relations 606 $aBalance of payments$2imf 606 $aCurrent Account Adjustment$2imf 606 $aCurrent account balance$2imf 606 $aCurrent account$2imf 606 $aDeflation$2imf 606 $aEconomic Forecasting$2imf 606 $aEconomic forecasting$2imf 606 $aExports and Imports$2imf 606 $aForecasting and Other Model Applications$2imf 606 $aForecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications$2imf 606 $aForecasting$2imf 606 $aGdp forecasting$2imf 606 $aInflation$2imf 606 $aInternational economics$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aNational income$2imf 606 $aPrice Level$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aShort-term Capital Movements$2imf 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 0$aEconomic development. 615 0$aEconomic forecasting$xEvaluation. 615 0$aInternational economic relations. 615 7$aBalance of payments 615 7$aCurrent Account Adjustment 615 7$aCurrent account balance 615 7$aCurrent account 615 7$aDeflation 615 7$aEconomic Forecasting 615 7$aEconomic forecasting 615 7$aExports and Imports 615 7$aForecasting and Other Model Applications 615 7$aForecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications 615 7$aForecasting 615 7$aGdp forecasting 615 7$aInflation 615 7$aInternational economics 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aNational income 615 7$aPrice Level 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aShort-term Capital Movements 700 $aTimmermann$b Allan$01654640 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund.$bResearch Dept. 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910817459903321 996 $aAn Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts$94073559 997 $aUNINA