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100   $a20060622d2006      uf         0
101 0 $aeng
135   $aur|n|---|||||
181   $ctxt
182   $cc
183   $acr
200 13$aAn evaluation of the world economic outlook forecasts /$fAllan Timmermann
205   $a1st ed.
210   $a[Washington, D.C.] $cInternational Monetary Fund, Research Dept.$d2006
215   $a1 online resource (108 p.)
225 1 $aIMF working paper ;$vWP/06/59
300   $a"March 2006."
311   $a1-4518-6319-5 
320   $aIncludes bibliographical references.
327   $a""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY""; ""II. DESCRIPTION OF WEO DATASET""; ""III. PROPERTIES OF OPTIMAL FORECASTS""; ""IV. EMPIRICAL RESULTS""; ""V. ANALYSIS OF STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE""; ""VI. CAN THE WEO FORECAST ERRORS BE PREDICTED?""; ""VII. DIRECTIONAL ACCURACY""; ""VIII. REVISIONS FROM BOARD TO PUBLISHED FORECASTS""; ""IX. RECENT PERFORMANCE OF WEO FORECASTS""; ""X. LONG-RUN FORECASTING PERFORMANCE FOR G-7 ECONOMIES""; ""XI. COMPARISON OF WEO AND CONSENSUS FORECASTS""; ""XII. FORECAST COMBINATIONS""; ""XIII. RECOMMENDATIONS""; ""XIV. CONCLUSION""; ""References""
330 3 $aThe World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forecasts. This paper conducts a series of statistical tests to evaluate the quality of the WEO forecasts for a very large cross section of countries, with particular emphasis on the recent recession and recovery. It assesses whether forecasts were unbiased and informationally efficient, and characterizes the process whereby WEO forecasts get revised as the time to the point of the forecast draws closer. Finally, the paper assess whether forecasts can be improved by combining WEO forecasts with the Consensus forecasts. The results suggest that the performance of the WEO forecasts is similar to that of the Consensus forecasts. While WEO forecasts for many variables in many countries meet basic quality standards in some, if not all, dimensions, the paper raises a number of concerns with current forecasting performance.
410  0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/06/59.
606   $aEconomic development
606   $aEconomic forecasting$xEvaluation
606   $aInternational economic relations
615  0$aEconomic development.
615  0$aEconomic forecasting$xEvaluation.
615  0$aInternational economic relations.
700   $aTimmermann$b Allan$01654640
712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund.$bResearch Dept.
801  0$bMiAaPQ
801  1$bMiAaPQ
801  2$bMiAaPQ
906   $aBOOK
912   $a9910817459903321
996   $aAn Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts$94073559
997   $aUNINA