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010   $a1-4623-2248-4
010   $a1-4527-4301-0
010   $a9786612842948
010   $a1-282-84294-3
010   $a1-4518-7220-8
035   $a(CKB)3170000000055242
035   $a(EBL)1608243
035   $a(SSID)ssj0000939969
035   $a(PQKBManifestationID)11518975
035   $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000939969
035   $a(PQKBWorkID)10938239
035   $a(PQKB)11717970
035   $a(OCoLC)608491617
035   $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1608243
035   $a(IMF)WPIEE2009073
035   $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055242
100   $a20041202d2009      uf         0
101 0 $aeng
135   $aur|n|---|||||
181   $ctxt
182   $cc
183   $acr
200 12$aA coincident indicator of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) business cycle /$fprepared by Abdullah Al-Hassan
205   $a1st ed.
210   $a[Washington D.C.] $cInternational Monetary Fund$d2009
215   $a1 online resource (36 p.)
225 1 $aIMF working paper ;$vWP/09/73
300   $aDescription based upon print version of record.
311   $a1-4519-1655-8 
320   $aIncludes bibliographical references.
327   $aContents; I. Introduction; II. Methodology; A. Generalized Dynamic Factor Model; B. Estimating Common Components by a One-Sided Filter; Figures; 1. Average Dynamic Eigenvalues Over Cross-Sectional Units; 2. Percentage of Variance Explained; III. Building a GCC Area Database; IV. A Coincident Indicator for the GCC Business Cycle; A. Definition of the Coincident Indicator Properties; 3. Spectral Density Functions of All Eigenvalues; 4. Average of Spectral Density Functions; B. Properties of the Coincident Indicator; C. The Construction of a Coincident Indicator
327   $a5. The GCC Coincident Indicator and the GCC Area GDP Growth Rate6. The GCC Coincident Indicator and the Common Component of National GDP; 7. The GCC Coincident Indicator and the Common Component of National GDP; V. Degree of Commonality and Cyclical Behavior of the Variables; A. Degree of Commonality; B. Business Cycle: Stylized Facts; Tables; 1. The Direction and Timing of Variables Against the Coincident Indicator; VI. Observed Economic Variables and Latent Factors; VII. Conclusion; 2. Testing the Observed Macroeconomic Data Against the Latent Factors; Appendix; I: Data Set; Appendix Tables
327   $a1: Data, Degree of Commonality, and Cyclical BehaviorReferences
330 3 $aThis paper constructs a coincident indicator for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) area business cycle. The resulting coincident indicator provides a reliable measure of the GCC business cycle; over the last decade, the GCC coincident index and the real GDP growth have moved closely together. Since the indicator is constructed using a small number of common factors, the strong correlation between the indicator and real GDP growth points to a high degree of commonality across GCC economies. The timing and direction of movements in macroeconomic variables are characterized with respect to the coincident indicator. Finally, to obtain a meaningful economic interpretation of the latent factors, their behavior is compared to the observed economic variables.
410  0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/09/73.
606   $aBusiness cycles
615  0$aBusiness cycles.
676   $a332.152
700   $aAl-Hassan$b Abdullah$01631333
801  0$bMiAaPQ
801  1$bMiAaPQ
801  2$bMiAaPQ
906   $aBOOK
912   $a9910817194403321
996   $aA Coincident Indicator of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Business Cycle$93970074
997   $aUNINA