LEADER 05720oam 22011894 450 001 9910817158303321 005 20200520144314.0 010 $a1-4623-5777-6 010 $a1-4527-2079-7 010 $a1-282-84526-8 010 $a1-4519-6217-7 010 $a9786612845260 035 $a(CKB)3170000000055418 035 $a(SSID)ssj0001477882 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11892584 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001477882 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)11461921 035 $a(PQKB)10062116 035 $a(OCoLC)680613531 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2010017 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1606058 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2010017 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055418 100 $a20020129d2010 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aInflation in Tajikistan : $eForecasting Analysis and Monetary Policy Challenges /$fSvetlana Vtyurina, Fahad Alturki 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2010. 215 $a19 p. $cill 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $aBibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph 311 $a1-4519-1866-6 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aIntro -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Monetary Policy Transmission Channels in Tajikistan -- III. Empirical Investigation -- IV. Summary and Considerations -- References -- Tables -- 1. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Tests -- 2. Johansen Co-Integration Tests -- 3. Model Restriction and Weak Exogeneity Tests -- 4. Main Statistics of Various ARMA Models, 1999-2009 -- Exhibits and Figures -- Exhibit -- 1. Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Tajikistan -- Figures -- 1. NBT Refinancing Rate and Bank Lending Rates, 2001-08 -- 2. Money Growth and Inflation, 2001-08 -- 3. Tajikistan: Overall Inflation 2001Q1-2010Q4 -- 4. Tajikistan: Overall Inflation 2001Q4-2010Q4 -- 5. Tajikistan: Overall Inflation, 1999-2009 -- 6. Tajikistan: Inflation Forecast Based on BARMA (2,2) Model, Dec. 2007-June 2009 -- 7. Tajikistan: Inflation Forecast Based on ARMA (2,2) Model, Dec. 2008-Dec. 2010. 330 3 $aThis paper attempts to explain short- and long-term dynamics of-and forecast-inflation in Tajikistan using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA). By analyzing different transmission channels through the VECM, we were able to evaluate their relative dominance, magnitude, and speed of transition to the equilibrium price level, with the view of identifying those policy tools that will enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy. We found that excess supply of broad money is inflationary in both the short and long term. The dynamic analysis also demonstrates that the exchange rate and international inflation have a strong impact on local prices. Available monetary instruments, such as the refinancing rate, have proven to be ineffective. Therefore, the Tajik monetary authority could greatly benefit from enhancing its monetary instruments toolkit, including by developing the interest rate channel, to improve its monetary policy execution and to achieve stable inflationary conditions. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2010/017 606 $aInflation (Finance)$zTajikistan 606 $aMonetary policy$zTajikistan 606 $aCurrency$2imf 606 $aDeflation$2imf 606 $aEconometric models$2imf 606 $aEconometrics & economic statistics$2imf 606 $aEconometrics$2imf 606 $aEconomic Forecasting$2imf 606 $aEconomic forecasting$2imf 606 $aExchange rates$2imf 606 $aForecasting and Other Model Applications$2imf 606 $aForecasting$2imf 606 $aForeign Exchange$2imf 606 $aForeign exchange$2imf 606 $aInflation$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aMonetary base$2imf 606 $aMonetary economics$2imf 606 $aMonetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General$2imf 606 $aMoney and Monetary Policy$2imf 606 $aMoney supply$2imf 606 $aMultiple or Simultaneous Equation Models$2imf 606 $aMultiple Variables: General$2imf 606 $aPrice Level$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aVector error correction models$2imf 607 $aTajikistan, Republic of$2imf 615 0$aInflation (Finance) 615 0$aMonetary policy 615 7$aCurrency 615 7$aDeflation 615 7$aEconometric models 615 7$aEconometrics & economic statistics 615 7$aEconometrics 615 7$aEconomic Forecasting 615 7$aEconomic forecasting 615 7$aExchange rates 615 7$aForecasting and Other Model Applications 615 7$aForecasting 615 7$aForeign Exchange 615 7$aForeign exchange 615 7$aInflation 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aMonetary base 615 7$aMonetary economics 615 7$aMonetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General 615 7$aMoney and Monetary Policy 615 7$aMoney supply 615 7$aMultiple or Simultaneous Equation Models 615 7$aMultiple Variables: General 615 7$aPrice Level 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aVector error correction models 676 $a332.1 700 $aVtyurina$b Svetlana$01679780 701 $aAlturki$b Fahad$01679781 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund. 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910817158303321 996 $aInflation in Tajikistan$94048281 997 $aUNINA