LEADER 08262oam 22014054 450 001 9910815644203321 005 20240402045208.0 010 $a1-4755-5233-5 010 $a1-4755-7725-7 035 $a(CKB)2550000000107538 035 $a(EBL)1606770 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000939844 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11511883 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000939844 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10937782 035 $a(PQKB)10740345 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1606770 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1606770 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10579624 035 $a(OCoLC)870244997 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2012144 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2012144 035 $a(EXLCZ)992550000000107538 100 $a20020129d2012 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aPublic Investment, Growth, and Debt Sustainability : $ePutting together the Pieces /$fAndrew Berg, Rafael Portillo, Edward Buffie, Catherine Pattillo, Luis-Felipe Zanna 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2012. 215 $a1 online resource (55 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4755-1165-5 311 $a1-4755-0407-1 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aCover; Table of Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Model; A. Firms; A.1. Technology; A.2. Factor Demands; B. Consumers; C. The Government; C.1. Infrastructure, Public Investment and Efficiency; C.2. Fiscal Adjustment and the Public Sector Budget Constraint; D. Market-Clearing Conditions and External Debt Accumulation; III. Calibration of the Model; Tables; Table 1. Base Case Calibration; IV. The Long-Run Outcome; Table 2. Public Investment Scaling Up, Concessional Borrowing, and Grants; A. Insights from a Simplified Model; Figures; Figure 1. The Long-run Outcome in the Simplified Model 327 $aB. Numerical SolutionsTable 3. Long-run Effects of Scaling up Public Investment by 3 Percent of Initial GDP; V. The Medium-Term Fiscal and Macroeconomic Adjustments under Different Financing Schemes; A. Unconstrained Tax Adjustment; A.1. The Base Case; Figure 2. Base Case: Unconstrained Tax Adjustment; A.2. More Optimistic and Troublesome Scenarios; Figure 3. Unconstrained Tax Adjustment: Optimistic and Troublesome Scenarios; A.3. Gradually Increasing Transfers, Efficiency, and the Collection Rate of User Fees; Figure 4. Unconstrained Tax Adjustment: The Size of the Scaling Up 327 $aFigure 5. Unconstrained Tax Adjustment: Increasing TransfersB. Constrained Tax Adjustment Combined with External Commercial Borrowing; B.1. Tax Smoothing and Private Demand Crowding Out; Figure 6. Unconstrained Tax Adjustment versus Constrained Tax Adjustment with External Commercial Borrowing; B.2. Debt Blowups: Structural and Policy Conditions; Figure 7. Constrained Tax Adjustment with External Commercial Borrowing: Varying the Structural and Policy Conditions; C. Constrained Tax Adjustment Combined with Domestic Borrowing 327 $aFigure 8. Constrained Tax Adjustment: Domestic Borrowing versus External Commercial BorrowingVI. External Shocks and Risks; Figure 9. External TOT Shocks: Shocks Persistence and Financing Schemes; Figure 10. TFP and Risk Premium Shocks and Risks; VII. Concluding Remarks; Appendix A. On Public Investment Efficiency, Rates of Return, and Growth; References 330 3 $aWe develop a model to study the macroeconomic effects of public investment surges in low-income countries, making explicit: (i) the investment-growth linkages; (ii) public external and domestic debt accumulation; (iii) the fiscal policy reactions necessary to ensure debt-sustainability; and (iv) the macroeconomic adjustment required to ensure internal and external balance. Well-executed high-yielding public investment programs can substantially raise output and consumption and be self-financing in the long run. However, even if the long run looks good, transition problems can be formidable when concessional financing does not cover the full cost of the investment program. Covering the resulting gap with tax increases or spending cuts requires sharp macroeconomic adjustments, crowding out private investment and consumption and delaying the growth benefits of public investment. Covering the gap with domestic borrowing market is not helpful either: higher domestic rates increase the financing challenge and private investment and consumption are still crowded out. Supplementing with external commercial borrowing, on the other hand, can smooth these difficult adjustments, reconciling the scaling up with feasibility constraints on increases in tax rates. But the strategy may be also risky. With poor execution, sluggish fiscal policy reactions, or persistent negative exogenous shocks, this strategy can easily lead to unsustainable public debt dynamics. Front-loaded investment programs and weak structural conditions (such as low returns to public capital and poor execution of investments) make the fiscal adjustment more challenging and the risks greater. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2012/144 606 $aDebts, External$zDeveloping countries 606 $aFinance, Public$zDeveloping countries 606 $aExports and Imports$2imf 606 $aInfrastructure$2imf 606 $aPublic Finance$2imf 606 $aFiscal Policy$2imf 606 $aInternational Lending and Debt Problems$2imf 606 $aDebt$2imf 606 $aDebt Management$2imf 606 $aSovereign Debt$2imf 606 $aInstitutions and Growth$2imf 606 $aNational Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures$2imf 606 $aOther Public Investment and Capital Stock$2imf 606 $aInvestment$2imf 606 $aCapital$2imf 606 $aIntangible Capital$2imf 606 $aCapacity$2imf 606 $aPublic finance & taxation$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aInternational economics$2imf 606 $aPublic investment and public-private partnerships (PPP)$2imf 606 $aPublic investment spending$2imf 606 $aPublic debt$2imf 606 $aDebt sustainability$2imf 606 $aExpenditure$2imf 606 $aNational accounts$2imf 606 $aExternal debt$2imf 606 $aPublic-private sector cooperation$2imf 606 $aPublic investments$2imf 606 $aDebts, Public$2imf 606 $aSaving and investment$2imf 606 $aDebts, External$2imf 607 $aGhana$2imf 615 0$aDebts, External 615 0$aFinance, Public 615 7$aExports and Imports 615 7$aInfrastructure 615 7$aPublic Finance 615 7$aFiscal Policy 615 7$aInternational Lending and Debt Problems 615 7$aDebt 615 7$aDebt Management 615 7$aSovereign Debt 615 7$aInstitutions and Growth 615 7$aNational Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures 615 7$aOther Public Investment and Capital Stock 615 7$aInvestment 615 7$aCapital 615 7$aIntangible Capital 615 7$aCapacity 615 7$aPublic finance & taxation 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aInternational economics 615 7$aPublic investment and public-private partnerships (PPP) 615 7$aPublic investment spending 615 7$aPublic debt 615 7$aDebt sustainability 615 7$aExpenditure 615 7$aNational accounts 615 7$aExternal debt 615 7$aPublic-private sector cooperation 615 7$aPublic investments 615 7$aDebts, Public 615 7$aSaving and investment 615 7$aDebts, External 676 $a332.152 700 $aBerg$b Andrew$01601294 701 $aPortillo$b Rafael$01632545 701 $aBuffie$b Edward$0118139 701 $aPattillo$b Catherine$01472701 701 $aZanna$b Luis-Felipe$01632546 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910815644203321 996 $aPublic Investment, Growth, and Debt Sustainability$94124917 997 $aUNINA