LEADER 03765nam 2200589Ia 450 001 9910814232203321 005 20200520144314.0 010 $a0-674-03929-7 024 7 $a10.4159/9780674039292 035 $a(CKB)1000000000805536 035 $a(StDuBDS)AH21620436 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL3300671 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10328849 035 $a(OCoLC)923116926 035 $a(DE-B1597)574630 035 $a(DE-B1597)9780674039292 035 $a(OCoLC)1262307698 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC3300671 035 $a(EXLCZ)991000000000805536 100 $a20040308d2004 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur||||||||||| 181 $ctxt$2rdacontent 182 $cc$2rdamedia 183 $acr$2rdacarrier 200 10$aSurprise attack $ethe victim's perspective /$fEphraim Kam 210 $aCambridge, Mass. ;$aLondon $cHarvard University Press$d2004 215 $a1 online resource (xv,266p. )$cill 300 $aIncludes bibliographical references and index. 311 $a0-674-85745-3 311 $a0-674-01354-9 327 $tFrontmatter --$tAcknowledgments --$tContents --$tForeword --$tPreface, 2004: Old Patterns, New Lessons --$tIntroduction --$tPart I. The Components of Surprise Attack --$t1. The Essence of Surprise Attack --$t2. Information and Indicators --$t3. Intentions and Capabilities --$tPart II. Judgmental Biases and Intelligence Analysis --$t4. Conceptions and Incoming Information --$t5. The Process of Analysis --$tPart III. The Environment --$t6. The Analyst and the Small Group --$t7. Organizational Obstacles --$t8. Intelligence and Decision Makers --$tConclusion: Is Surprise Attack Inevitable? --$tNotes --$tBibliography --$tIndex 330 $aEphraim Kam observes surprise attack through the eyes of its victim in order to understand the causes of the victim's failure to anticipate the coming of war. Emphasing the psychological aspect of warfare, Kam traces the behavior of the victim at various functional levels and from several points of view in order to examine the difficulties and mistakes that permit a nation to be taken by surprise. He argues that anticipation and prediction of a coming war are more complicated than any other issue of strategic estimation, involving such interdependent factors as analytical contradictions, judgemental biases, organizational obstacles, and political as well as military constraints. Surprise Attack: The Victim's Perspective offers implications based on the intelligence perspective, providing both historical background and scientific analysis that draws from the author's vast experience. The book is of utmost value to all those engaged in intelligence work, and to those whose operational or political responsibility brings them in touch with intelligence assessments and the need to authenticate and then adopt them or discount them. Similarly, the book will interest any reader intrigued by decision-making processes that influence individuals and nations at war, and sometimes even shape national destiny.--Ehud Barak, Former Prime Minister of Israel 606 $aSurprise (Military science) 606 $aMilitary art and science 606 $aInternational relations 606 $aPreemptive attack (Military science) 606 $aMilitary history, Modern$y20th century 615 0$aSurprise (Military science) 615 0$aMilitary art and science. 615 0$aInternational relations. 615 0$aPreemptive attack (Military science) 615 0$aMilitary history, Modern 676 $a355.43 700 $aKam$b Ephraim$f1941-$01699715 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910814232203321 996 $aSurprise attack$94082189 997 $aUNINA