LEADER 06186oam 22013214 450 001 9910812706003321 005 20240402045608.0 010 $a1-4755-2485-4 010 $a1-4755-3732-8 035 $a(CKB)2670000000278830 035 $a(EBL)1606987 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000949360 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11541305 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000949360 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10996277 035 $a(PQKB)11355306 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1606987 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1606987 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10627051 035 $a(OCoLC)870245050 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2012227 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2012227 035 $a(EXLCZ)992670000000278830 100 $a20020129d2012 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aDeterminants of Growth Spells : $eIs Africa Different? /$fCharalambos Tsangarides 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2012. 215 $a1 online resource (33 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4755-6618-2 311 $a1-4755-1022-5 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aCover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Identifying Growth Spells and Their Determinants; A. From Structural Breaks to Growth Spells; B. Determinants of Growth Spells; III. Empirical Strategy; A. Survival Models; B. BMA for survival models; C. Model Specification and Africa Interactions; IV. Results; A. Impact of Model Uncertainty; B. Robustness Analysis Using BMA; V. Conclusion; References; Tables; 1. Growth Breaks by Country Group; 2. Stylized Facts about Growth Spells; 3. Evidence for Lack of Robustness from Ad Hoc Growth Regressions 327 $a4. Posterior Coefficient Estimates for Growth Spells for Africa, Non-Africa, and World Figures; 1a. Upbreaks and Downbreaks: Hills, Cliffs, Mountains, and Plateaus; 1b. Upbreaks and Downbreaks: Hills, Cliffs, Mountains, and Plateaus in Africa; 2a. Distribution of Upbreaks; 2b. Distribution of Downbreaks; 3. Duration of Growth Spells and Explanatory Variables; Appendix 330 3 $aDo growth spells in Africa end because of bad realizations of the same factors that influence growth spells in the rest of the world, or because of different factors altogether? To answer this question, we examine determinants of growth spells in Africa and the rest of the world using Bayesian Mode Averaging techniques for proportional hazards models. We define growth spells as periods of sustained growth episodes between growth accelerations and decelerations and then relate the probability that a growth spell ends to various determinants including exogenous shocks, physical and human capital, macroeconomic policy, and sociopolitical factors. Our analysis suggests that determinants of growth spells in Africa are different from those in the rest of the world. The majority of the identified robust determinants have a distinct impact in only one of the two samples: initial income, terms of trade, exchange rate undervaluation and inflation, influence spells only in the world sample, while openness and droughts seem to only affect Africa. In addition, a few common determinants - proxies for human and physical capital and changes in the world interest rate - have very different marginal effects in the two samples. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2012/227 606 $aEconomic development$zAfrica 606 $aExports and Imports$2imf 606 $aForeign Exchange$2imf 606 $aLabor$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development$2imf 606 $aEconomic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General$2imf 606 $aBayesian Analysis: General$2imf 606 $aPersonal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions$2imf 606 $aEmpirical Studies of Trade$2imf 606 $aHuman Capital$2imf 606 $aSkills$2imf 606 $aOccupational Choice$2imf 606 $aLabor Productivity$2imf 606 $aEnergy: Demand and Supply$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aInternational economics$2imf 606 $aLabour$2imf 606 $aincome economics$2imf 606 $aCurrency$2imf 606 $aForeign exchange$2imf 606 $aPersonal income$2imf 606 $aTerms of trade$2imf 606 $aHuman capital$2imf 606 $aExchange rates$2imf 606 $aOil prices$2imf 606 $aNational accounts$2imf 606 $aInternational trade$2imf 606 $aIncome$2imf 606 $aEconomic policy$2imf 606 $anternational cooperation$2imf 607 $aAfrica$xEconomic conditions 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 0$aEconomic development 615 7$aExports and Imports 615 7$aForeign Exchange 615 7$aLabor 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aMacroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development 615 7$aEconomic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General 615 7$aBayesian Analysis: General 615 7$aPersonal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions 615 7$aEmpirical Studies of Trade 615 7$aHuman Capital 615 7$aSkills 615 7$aOccupational Choice 615 7$aLabor Productivity 615 7$aEnergy: Demand and Supply 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aInternational economics 615 7$aLabour 615 7$aincome economics 615 7$aCurrency 615 7$aForeign exchange 615 7$aPersonal income 615 7$aTerms of trade 615 7$aHuman capital 615 7$aExchange rates 615 7$aOil prices 615 7$aNational accounts 615 7$aInternational trade 615 7$aIncome 615 7$aEconomic policy 615 7$anternational cooperation 676 $a332.1/52 700 $aTsangarides$b Charalambos$01462110 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910812706003321 996 $aDeterminants of Growth Spells$94048453 997 $aUNINA