LEADER 06052oam 22011414 450 001 9910812318703321 005 20240402051256.0 010 $a1-4623-0330-7 010 $a1-4527-3089-X 010 $a1-4518-7272-0 010 $a1-282-84339-7 010 $a9786612843396 035 $a(CKB)3170000000055277 035 $a(EBL)1608318 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000940110 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11518982 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940110 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10946574 035 $a(PQKB)11752652 035 $a(OCoLC)586097883 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1608318 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2009125 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055277 100 $a20020129d2009 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aDecoupling from the East Toward the West? Analyses of Spillovers to the Baltic Countries 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2009. 215 $a1 online resource (40 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4519-1701-5 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aContents; I. Introduction; II. The 1998 Russian Crisis; Figures; 1. The Baltic Countries: Responses of Aggregate Demand Components to 1998 Russian Crisis (year-on-year change, in percent); III. Trade and Financial Linkages; 2. The Baltics: Exports and Imports of Goods and Services (in percent of total, 1994-2007); Tables; 1. The Baltics: Sources and Destination of Foreign Direct Investment (in percent of total, 2007); 3 Baltic Countries: Business Cycle Synchronization with Major Trading Partners; IV. Econometric Analysis; A. Vector Auto regression Models 327 $a2. Variance Decomposition for Baltic Countries' Real GDP (Base VAR Models)4. Baltic Countries: GDP Growth Responses to 1 Percent Shocks from Major Trading Partners and Real Effective Exchange Rate; B. Extended Vector Auto regression Models; 3. Variance Decomposition for Baltic Countries' Real GDP (Extended VAR Models); 5. Baltic Countries: GDP Growth Responses to 1 Percent Shocks from Major Trading Partners, Oil Price Growth and REER; V. Measuring the Channels of Spillovers; 6. The Baltic Countries: Contributions to Spillovers from EU Countries 327 $a7. The Baltic Countries: Contributions to Spillovers from Russia 8. The Baltic Countries: Contributions to Spillovers from the Scandinavian Region; VI. Conclusions and Lessons for Policy; References; Data Description; Appendices; Tables; A1. The Baltic Countries: Direction of Imports to Major Trading Partners (in percent of total); A2. Structure of Bank Ownership in the Baltic Countries; A3. Results of Unit Root Tests Using the Ng-Perron Procedure; A4. Variance Decomposition Results (Base VAR Models, 1996-2007); A5. Variance Decomposition Results (Extended VAR Models, 1996-2007); Figures 327 $aA1. The Baltic Countries: Decomposition of Exports and Imports (in percent of GDP, 1993-2007) A2. Impulse Response Results (Base VAR Models, 1996-2007); A3. Impulse Response Results (Extended VAR Models, 1996-2007); A4. The Baltics: Responses to 1 Percent Shock from the Scandinavian Region 330 3 $aThis paper uses VAR models to examine the magnitude and sources of growth spillovers to the Baltics from key trading partners, as well asfrom the real effective exchange rate (REER). Our results show there are significant cross-country spillovers to the Baltics with those from the EU outweighing spillovers from Russia. Shocks to the REER generally depress growth in the Baltics, and this intensifies over time. We also find that financial and trade channels dominate the transmission of spillovers to the region which partly explains the realization of downside risks to the Baltics from the global slowdown. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2009/125 606 $aEconometric models$zBaltic States 606 $aEconomics$zBaltic States 606 $aEconometrics$2imf 606 $aExports and Imports$2imf 606 $aForeign Exchange$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aExternalities$2imf 606 $aTime-Series Models$2imf 606 $aDynamic Quantile Regressions$2imf 606 $aDynamic Treatment Effect Models$2imf 606 $aDiffusion Processes$2imf 606 $aEnergy: Demand and Supply$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aTrade: General$2imf 606 $aCurrency$2imf 606 $aForeign exchange$2imf 606 $aEconometrics & economic statistics$2imf 606 $aInternational economics$2imf 606 $aSpillovers$2imf 606 $aReal effective exchange rates$2imf 606 $aVector autoregression$2imf 606 $aOil prices$2imf 606 $aExports$2imf 606 $aInternational finance$2imf 607 $aRussian Federation$2imf 615 0$aEconometric models 615 0$aEconomics 615 7$aEconometrics 615 7$aExports and Imports 615 7$aForeign Exchange 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aExternalities 615 7$aTime-Series Models 615 7$aDynamic Quantile Regressions 615 7$aDynamic Treatment Effect Models 615 7$aDiffusion Processes 615 7$aEnergy: Demand and Supply 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aTrade: General 615 7$aCurrency 615 7$aForeign exchange 615 7$aEconometrics & economic statistics 615 7$aInternational economics 615 7$aSpillovers 615 7$aReal effective exchange rates 615 7$aVector autoregression 615 7$aOil prices 615 7$aExports 615 7$aInternational finance 676 $a332.1/52 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910812318703321 996 $aDecoupling from the East Toward the West? Analyses of Spillovers to the Baltic Countries$93944879 997 $aUNINA