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010   $a9786612843723
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035   $a(OCoLC)645191528
035   $a(IMF)WPIEE2009159
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100   $a20100304d2009      uf         0
101 0 $aeng
135   $aur|n|---|||||
181   $ctxt
182   $cc
183   $acr
200 10$aMacroeconomic fluctuations in the Caribbean $ethe role of climatic and external shocks /$fprepared by Sebastian Sosa and Paul Cashin
205   $a1st ed.
210   $a[Washington, D.C.] $cInternational Monetary Fund, Western Hemisphere Dept.$d2009
215   $a1 online resource (29 p.)
225 1 $aIMF working paper ;$vWP/09/159
300   $a"July 2009."
311   $a1-4519-1734-1 
327   $aContents; I. Introduction; II. Econometric Approach; A. Specification and Identification Strategy; B. Block Structure, Variables, and Data; Tables; 1. Block Exogeneity Restrictions of the VAR Model; C. Estimation; III. Business Cycle Responses to External Shocks: Empirical Results; 2. Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations in the Eastern Caribbean; 3. Climatic Shocks and Output Fluctuations in the ECCU; Figures; 1. Natural Disasters and GDP Growth in the Eastern Caribbean; 2. Response of Real Output to Climatic Shocks; 3. Response of Real Output to Climatic Shocks
327   $a4. Oil Price Shocks and Output Fluctuations in the ECCU4. Response of Real Output to Oil Price Shocks; 5. Real GDP Growth in the Eastern Caribbean and Industrial Countries; 5. External Demand Shocks and Output Fluctuations in the ECCU; 6. Response of Real Output to External Demand Shocks; 6. World Real Interest Rate Shocks and Output Fluctuations in the ECCU; IV. Concluding Remarks; 7. Response of Real Output to World Real Interest Rate Shocks; Appendix Tables; A1. Antigua and Barbuda: Variance Decomposition of Real Output; A2. Dominica: Variance Decomposition of Real Output
327   $aA3. Grenada: Variance Decomposition of Real OutputA4. St. Kitts and Nevis: Variance Decomposition of Real Output; A5. St. Lucia: Variance Decomposition of Real Output; A6. St. Vincent and the Grenadines: Variance Decomposition of Real Output; References
330 3 $aThis paper develops country-specific VAR models with block exogeneity restrictions to analyze how exogenous factors affect business cycles in the Eastern Caribbean. It finds that external shocks play a key role, explaining more than half of macroeconomic fluctuations in the region. Domestic business cycles are especially vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions, with a natural disaster leading to an immediate and significant fall in output-but the effects do not appear to be persistent. Oil price and external demand shocks also contribute significantly to domestic macroeconomic fluctuations. An increase in oil prices (external demand) is contractionary (expansionary), and the effects dissipate up to three years after the shock.
410  0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/09/159.
606   $aNatural disasters$xEconomic aspects
607   $aCaribbean Area$xEconomic conditions
615  0$aNatural disasters$xEconomic aspects.
676   $a330.9
700   $aSosa$b Sebastian$01643706
701   $aCashin$b Paul$01632384
712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund.$bWestern Hemisphere Dept.
801  0$bMiAaPQ
801  1$bMiAaPQ
801  2$bMiAaPQ
906   $aBOOK
912   $a9910812019303321
996   $aMacroeconomic Fluctuations in the Caribbean$93989131
997   $aUNINA