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010   $a1-282-32139-0
010   $a9786612321399
010   $a1-4106-1083-7
024 7 $a10.4324/9781410610836 
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035   $a(OCoLC)475949677
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100   $a20040127d2004      uy         0
101 0 $aeng
135   $aur|n|---|||||
181   $ctxt
182   $cc
183   $acr
200 10$aCognition and chance $ethe psychology of probabilistic reasoning /$fRaymond S. Nickerson
210   $aMahwah, N.J. ;$aLondon $cLawrence Erlbaum$d2004
215   $a1 online resource (450 p.)
300   $aDescription based upon print version of record.
311   $a0-8058-4899-1 
311   $a0-8058-4898-3 
320   $aIncludes bibliographical references and index.
327   $aContents; Preface; 1. Probability and Chance; 2. Randomness; 3. Coincidences; 4. Inverse Probability and the Reverend Tnomas Bayes; 5. Some Instructive Problems; 6. Some Probability Paradoxes and Dilemmas; 7. Statistics; 8. Estimation and Prediction; 9. Perception of Covariation and Contingency; 10. Choice under Uncertainty; 11. People as Intuitive Probabilists; 12. Concluding Comments; References; Author Index; Subject Index
330   $aLack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naivete?, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, and precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how c
606   $aProbabilities
606   $aRisk assessment
615  0$aProbabilities.
615  0$aRisk assessment.
676   $a519.287
700   $aNickerson$b Raymond S$0724078
801  0$bMiAaPQ
801  1$bMiAaPQ
801  2$bMiAaPQ
906   $aBOOK
912   $a9910811241103321
996   $aCognition and chance$94031672
997   $aUNINA