LEADER 08047oam 22015134 450 001 9910810127103321 005 20240402045725.0 010 $a1-4755-3230-X 010 $a1-4755-9666-9 035 $a(CKB)2550000001041558 035 $a(EBL)1607036 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000960552 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11542361 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000960552 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10949790 035 $a(PQKB)11703716 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1607036 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1607036 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10661249 035 $a(OCoLC)815561573 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2012255 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2012255 035 $a(EXLCZ)992550000001041558 100 $a20020129d2012 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 14$aThe Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles /$fPaul Cashin, Kamiar Mohaddes, Mehdi Raissi 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2012. 215 $a1 online resource (41 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4755-5191-6 311 $a1-4755-8164-5 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aCover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Global VAR (GVAR) Methodology; III. A Global VAR Model Including the MENA Region; Tables; 1. Countries and Regions in the GVAR Model Including MENA; A. Variables; Domestic Variables; Foreign Variables; Global Variables; B. MENA Trade Weights; 2. MENA Trade Weights; C. Model Specification; 3. Variables Specification of the Country-Specific VARX* Models; D. Country-Specific Estimates and Tests; Lag Order Selection, Cointegrating Relations, and Persistence Profiles 327 $a4. Lag Orders of the Country-Specific VARX*(s,s*) Models Together with the Number of Cointegrating Relations (r)Testing the Weak Exogeneity Assumption; Figures; 1. Persistence Profiles of the Effect of a System-wide Shock to the Cointegrating Relations; Testing for Structural Breaks; 5. F-Statistics for Testing the Weak Exogeneity of the Country-Specific Foreign Variables, Oil Prices, and Oil Production; 6. Number of Rejections of the Null of Parameter Constancy per Variable Across the Country-specific Models at the 5 Percent Significance Level; IV. Inward Spillovers; A. Shock to U.S. GDP 327 $a2. Four Quarters Cumulated Impulse Responses of Output to a Negative GDP Shock in the United States (Relative to the U.S.)3. Four Quarters Cumulated Impulse Responses of Oil Prices and Supply; B. Shock to Euro Area GDP; 4. Four Quarters Cumulated Impulse Responses of Output to a Negative GDP Shock in the Euro Area (Relative to the Euro Area); 5. Impulse Responses of a Negative Unit Shock to Euro Area Output; C. Shock to Chinese GDP; 6. Four Quarters Cumulated Impulse Responses of Output to a Negative GDP Shock in China (Relative to China); V. Outward Spillovers 327 $a7. Four Quarters Cumulated Impulse Responses of Output to a Positive GDP Shock in the GCC Region (Relative to the GCC)8. Four Quarters Cumulated Impulse Responses of Output to a Positive GDP Shock in the MENA Oil Exporters (Relative to the MENAEX); VI. Concluding Remarks; References; Data Appendix; 7. Trade Weights, Averages over 2006-2008; 8. Trade Weights, Averages over 1986-1988 330 3 $aThis paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GDP shock in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and MENA oil exporters to the rest of the world. This analysis is based on a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Spillovers are transmitted across economies via trade, financial, and commodity price linkages. The results show that the MENA countries are more sensitive to developments in China than to shocks in the Euro Area or the United States, in line with the direction of evolving trade patterns and the emergence of China as a key driver of the global economy. Outward spillovers from the GCC region and MENA oil exporters are likely to be stronger in their immediate geographical proximity, but also have global implications. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2012/255 606 $aBusiness cycles$zChina$xEconometric models 606 $aBusiness cycles$zUnited Stated$xEconometric models 606 $aBusiness cycles$zMiddle East$xEconometric models 606 $aBusiness cycles$zAfrica, North$xEconometric models 606 $aInvestments: Energy$2imf 606 $aEconometrics$2imf 606 $aForeign Exchange$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aIndustries: Energy$2imf 606 $aTime-Series Models$2imf 606 $aDynamic Quantile Regressions$2imf 606 $aDynamic Treatment Effect Models$2imf 606 $aDiffusion Processes$2imf 606 $aState Space Models$2imf 606 $aGeneral Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation$2imf 606 $aBusiness Fluctuations$2imf 606 $aCycles$2imf 606 $aInternational Business Cycles$2imf 606 $aEconomywide Country Studies: Asia including Middle East$2imf 606 $aEnergy: Demand and Supply$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aEnergy: General$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics: Production$2imf 606 $aInvestment & securities$2imf 606 $aEconometrics & economic statistics$2imf 606 $aCurrency$2imf 606 $aForeign exchange$2imf 606 $aPetroleum, oil & gas industries$2imf 606 $aOil$2imf 606 $aOil prices$2imf 606 $aVector autoregression$2imf 606 $aReal effective exchange rates$2imf 606 $aOil production$2imf 606 $aCommodities$2imf 606 $aEconometric analysis$2imf 606 $aProduction$2imf 606 $aPetroleum industry and trade$2imf 607 $aBusiness cycles$zEurope$xEconometric models 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 0$aBusiness cycles$xEconometric models. 615 0$aBusiness cycles$xEconometric models. 615 0$aBusiness cycles$xEconometric models. 615 0$aBusiness cycles$xEconometric models. 615 7$aInvestments: Energy 615 7$aEconometrics 615 7$aForeign Exchange 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aIndustries: Energy 615 7$aTime-Series Models 615 7$aDynamic Quantile Regressions 615 7$aDynamic Treatment Effect Models 615 7$aDiffusion Processes 615 7$aState Space Models 615 7$aGeneral Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation 615 7$aBusiness Fluctuations 615 7$aCycles 615 7$aInternational Business Cycles 615 7$aEconomywide Country Studies: Asia including Middle East 615 7$aEnergy: Demand and Supply 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aEnergy: General 615 7$aMacroeconomics: Production 615 7$aInvestment & securities 615 7$aEconometrics & economic statistics 615 7$aCurrency 615 7$aForeign exchange 615 7$aPetroleum, oil & gas industries 615 7$aOil 615 7$aOil prices 615 7$aVector autoregression 615 7$aReal effective exchange rates 615 7$aOil production 615 7$aCommodities 615 7$aEconometric analysis 615 7$aProduction 615 7$aPetroleum industry and trade 676 $a332.1532 700 $aCashin$b Paul$01632384 701 $aMohaddes$b Kamiar$01645984 701 $aRaissi$b Mehdi$01645985 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910810127103321 996 $aThe Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles$93992772 997 $aUNINA