LEADER 08469oam 22014654 450 001 9910809790603321 005 20240405035108.0 010 $a1-4983-8897-3 010 $a1-4983-1587-9 010 $a1-4983-9971-1 035 $a(CKB)2550000001352331 035 $a(EBL)1779700 035 $a(SSID)ssj0001398951 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11845201 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001398951 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)11447702 035 $a(PQKB)11234534 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1779700 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1779700 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10928023 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL642248 035 $a(OCoLC)890530170 035 $a(IMF)1GINEE2014002 035 $a(IMF)1GINEA2014002 035 $a(EXLCZ)992550000001352331 100 $a20020129d2014 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcnu|||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aGuinea : $eFourth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, and Financing Assurances Review 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2014. 215 $a1 online resource (89 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Staff Country Reports 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4983-0719-1 311 $a1-322-10997-4 327 $aCover; CONTENTS; UPDATE ON 2013 OUT TURN AND PROGRAM PERFORMANCE; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK AND POLICY DISCUSSIONS FOR 2014; A. Recent Developments, Economic Outlook, and Risks; FIGURES; 1. Recent Economic Developments; B. Fiscal Policy; 2. Recent Fiscal Developments; C. Monetary, Exchange Rate, and Financial Sector Policies; 3. Recent Monetary Developments; D. Structural Reform; E. External Debt Management; PROGRAM MONITORING, FINANCING, AND RISKS; BOX; 1. Kaleta-Conakry Electricity Transmission Line 327 $a4. Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Under Alternative Scenarios, 2013-33 STAFF APPRAISAL; TABLES; 1. Key Economic and Financial Indicators, 2008-17; 2a. Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2012-17 (Billions of Guinean Francs); 2b. Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2012-17 (Percent of GDP); 3a. Central Bank and Deposit Money Banks Accounts, 2009-14; 3b. Monetary Survey, 2009-14; 4 Balance of Payments, 2008-17; 5. Performance Criteria and Indicative Targets, ECF 2013-14; 6. Banking Sector Financial Soundness Indicators, 2010-13 327 $a7. Risk Assessment Matrix 8 External Financing Requirements and Sources, 2012-16; 9. Indicators of Capacity to Repay the IMF, 2013-25; 10. Proposed Schedule of Disbursements and Timing of Reviews Under the ECF Arrangement, 2012-15; APPENDICES; I. Letter of Intent; Attachment I. Fourth Supplement to the Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies; Attachment II. Technical Memorandum of Understanding; CONTENTS; RELATIONS WITH THE FUND; JOINT WORLD BANK-FUND MATRIX; RELATIONS WITH THE AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK, 2011-13; MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS; STATISCAL ISSUES 330 3 $aEXECUTIVE SUMMARY Economic activity remained weak in early 2014. Activity was impacted by an outbreak of the Ebola virus since late 2013, but lagging structural reforms, energy shortages, and political uncertainty may also be at play. Economic growth is estimated to have been 2.3 percent in 2013, and is projected at 3.5 percent in 2014, supported by higher public investment and assuming a gradual start-up of new mining sector investment. Inflation fell to below 10 percent year-on-year in May 2014, international reserves covered 3.6 months of imports by end-2013, and the exchange rate has remained stable. Performance under the ECF-supported program remains broadly satisfactory, although progress with structural reform has been slow. All performance criteria for end-2013 were met as were all but one (the floor on priority sector spending) of the program?s indicative targets for March 2014. However, the structural benchmarks for the second half of 2013 and early-2014 could not be completed as planned. The policy discussions focused on (i) the growth outlook for 2014; (ii) a supplementary budget for 2014 in light of a shortfall in revenues and new spending needs; (iii) progress in implementing structural reforms; and (iv) debt management. Risks to the program largely stem from domestic factors. New cases of Ebola have surged and spread more widely in recent months, which could affect growth in the second half of the year. The recent approval of the investment framework for the large Simandou iron ore project augurs well for a gradual pick-up in mining activity. However, renewed political tensions and uncertainty in the run-up to presidential elections, due in the second half of 2015, could risk delaying new investment. Staff supports completing the fourth review under the ECF arrangement and the financing assurances review. Completion of the review will result in a disbursement of an amount equivalent to SDR 18.36 million under the ECF arrangement. 410 0$aIMF Staff Country Reports; Country Report ;$vNo. 2014/244 606 $aBanks and Banking$2imf 606 $aExports and Imports$2imf 606 $aFinancial Risk Management$2imf 606 $aPublic Finance$2imf 606 $aNatural Resource Extraction$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aNational Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General$2imf 606 $aBanks$2imf 606 $aDepository Institutions$2imf 606 $aMicro Finance Institutions$2imf 606 $aMortgages$2imf 606 $aInternational Lending and Debt Problems$2imf 606 $aIndustry Studies: Primary Products and Construction: General$2imf 606 $aDebt$2imf 606 $aDebt Management$2imf 606 $aSovereign Debt$2imf 606 $aFinancial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation$2imf 606 $aPublic finance & taxation$2imf 606 $aBanking$2imf 606 $aInternational economics$2imf 606 $aExtractive industries$2imf 606 $aFinancial services law & regulation$2imf 606 $aPublic financial management (PFM)$2imf 606 $aMining sector$2imf 606 $aDebt relief$2imf 606 $aBank supervision$2imf 606 $aEconomic sectors$2imf 606 $aFinancial regulation and supervision$2imf 606 $aNational accounts$2imf 606 $aBudget planning and preparation$2imf 606 $aFinance, Public$2imf 606 $aDebts, External$2imf 606 $aBanks and banking$2imf 606 $aMineral industries$2imf 606 $aState supervision$2imf 606 $aNational income$2imf 607 $aPapua New Guinea$xEconomic conditions 607 $aPapua New Guinea$xSocial conditions 607 $aGuinea$2imf 615 7$aBanks and Banking 615 7$aExports and Imports 615 7$aFinancial Risk Management 615 7$aPublic Finance 615 7$aNatural Resource Extraction 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aNational Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General 615 7$aBanks 615 7$aDepository Institutions 615 7$aMicro Finance Institutions 615 7$aMortgages 615 7$aInternational Lending and Debt Problems 615 7$aIndustry Studies: Primary Products and Construction: General 615 7$aDebt 615 7$aDebt Management 615 7$aSovereign Debt 615 7$aFinancial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation 615 7$aPublic finance & taxation 615 7$aBanking 615 7$aInternational economics 615 7$aExtractive industries 615 7$aFinancial services law & regulation 615 7$aPublic financial management (PFM) 615 7$aMining sector 615 7$aDebt relief 615 7$aBank supervision 615 7$aEconomic sectors 615 7$aFinancial regulation and supervision 615 7$aNational accounts 615 7$aBudget planning and preparation 615 7$aFinance, Public 615 7$aDebts, External 615 7$aBanks and banking 615 7$aMineral industries 615 7$aState supervision 615 7$aNational income 676 $a330.9953 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910809790603321 996 $aGuinea$93914170 997 $aUNINA