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010   $a9786613830142
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100   $a20060622d2006      uf         0
101 0 $aeng
135   $aur|n|---|||||
181   $ctxt
182   $cc
183   $acr
200 10$aMeasures of underlying inflation in the Euro area $eassessment and role for informing monetary policy /$fprepared by Emil Stavrev
205   $a1st ed.
210   $a[Washington, D.C.] $cInternational Monetary Fund, Research Dept.$dc2006
215   $a1 online resource (37 p.)
225 1 $aIMF working paper ;$vWP/06/197
300   $a"August 2006."
311   $a1-4518-6457-4 
320   $aIncludes bibliographical references.
327   $a""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. TAXONOMY OF UNDERLYING INFLATION INDICATORS""; ""III. FEATURES OF THE INDICATORS""; ""IV. FORECASTING METHODOLOGY AND ASSESSMENT OF FORECASTING PERFORMANCE""; ""V. CONCLUDING REMARKS""; ""References""
330 3 $aThe paper evaluates the 24-month ahead inflation forecasting performance of various indicators of underlying inflation and structural models. The inflation forecast errors resulting from model misspecification are larger than the errors resulting from forecasting of exogenous variables. Also, measures derived using the generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) overperform other measures over the monetary policy horizon and are leading indicators of headline inflation. Trimmed means, although weaker than GDFM indicators, have good forecasting performance, while indicators by permanent exclusion underperform but provide useful information about short-term dynamics. The forecasting performance of theoretically-founded models that relate monetary aggregates, the output gap, and inflation improves with the time horizon but generally falls short of that of the GDFM. A composite measure of underlying inflation, derived by averaging the statistical indicators and the model-based estimates, improves forecast accuracy by eliminating bias and offers valuable insight about the distribution of risks.
410  0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/06/197.
606   $aInflation (Finance)$zEurope
606   $aMonetary policy$zEurope
615  0$aInflation (Finance)
615  0$aMonetary policy
700   $aStavrev$b Emil$01594423
801  0$bMiAaPQ
801  1$bMiAaPQ
801  2$bMiAaPQ
906   $aBOOK
912   $a9910809415903321
996   $aMeasures of Underlying Inflation in the Euro Area$94127193
997   $aUNINA