LEADER 03813nam 2200673 a 450 001 9910808824903321 005 20240516072051.0 010 $a1-283-13342-3 010 $a9786613133427 010 $a1-4008-4074-0 024 7 $a10.1515/9781400840748 035 $a(CKB)2670000000095251 035 $a(EBL)713592 035 $a(OCoLC)730151751 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000524674 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11345901 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000524674 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10484230 035 $a(PQKB)10567566 035 $a(OCoLC)733057993 035 $a(MdBmJHUP)muse43167 035 $a(DE-B1597)453592 035 $a(OCoLC)979780065 035 $a(DE-B1597)9781400840748 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL713592 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10477113 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL313342 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC713592 035 $a(EXLCZ)992670000000095251 100 $a20041206d2005 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aPainful choices $ea theory of foreign policy change /$fDavid A. Welch 205 $aCourse Book 210 $aPrinceton, N.J. $cPrinceton University Press$dc2005 215 $a1 online resource (289 p.) 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a0-691-16594-7 311 $a0-691-12340-3 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references and index. 327 $tFront matter --$tContents --$tFigures and Tables --$tAcknowledgments --$tIntroduction --$tCHAPTER 1. Surprise, Anticipation, and Theory --$tCHAPTER 2. A Theory of Foreign Policy Change --$tCHAPTER 3. Useless Islands Disputes --$tCHAPTER 4. American Boys in an Asian War --$tCHAPTER 5. Free Trade with the United States: Two Funerals and a Wedding --$tCHAPTER 6. Conclusion --$tWorks Cited --$tIndex 330 $aUnder what conditions should we expect states to do things radically differently all of a sudden? In this book, David Welch seeks to answer this question, constructing a theory of foreign policy change inspired by organization theory, cognitive and motivational psychology, and prospect theory. He then "test drives" the theory in a series of comparative case studies in the security and trade domains: Argentina's decision to go to war over the Falklands/Malvinas vs. Japan's endless patience with diplomacy in its conflict with Russia over the Northern Territories; America's decision to commit large-scale military force to Vietnam vs. its ultimate decision to withdraw; and Canada's two abortive flirtations with free trade with the United States in 1911 and 1948 vs. its embrace of free trade in the late 1980's. Painful Choices has three main objectives: to determine whether the general theory project in the field of international relations can be redeemed, given disappointment with previous attempts; to reflect on what this reveals about the possibilities and limits of general theory; and to inform policy. Welch argues that earlier efforts at general theory erred by aiming to explain state behavior, which is an intractable problem. Instead, since inertia is the default expectation in international politics, all we need do is to explain changes in behavior. Painful Choices shows that this is a tractable problem with clear implications for intelligence analysts and negotiators. 606 $aInternational relations 606 $aInternational relations$vCase studies 615 0$aInternational relations. 615 0$aInternational relations 676 $a327.1/01 686 $a89.70$2bcl 700 $aWelch$b David A$01681450 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910808824903321 996 $aPainful choices$94050870 997 $aUNINA