LEADER 03936nam 2200625Ia 450 001 9910808010803321 005 20240416155342.0 010 $a0-674-07602-8 010 $a0-674-07598-6 024 7 $a10.4159/harvard.9780674075986 035 $a(CKB)2670000000368510 035 $a(EBL)3301313 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000886816 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11548578 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000886816 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10835556 035 $a(PQKB)10243512 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC3301313 035 $a(DE-B1597)209758 035 $a(OCoLC)843880768 035 $a(OCoLC)853269171 035 $a(DE-B1597)9780674075986 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL3301313 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10713640 035 $a(EXLCZ)992670000000368510 100 $a20121101d2013 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurnn#---|u||u 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aTychomancy $einferring probability from causal structure /$fMichael Strevens 205 $a1st ed. 210 $aCambridge, Mass. $cHarvard University Press$d2013 215 $a1 online resource (280 p.) 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 0 $a0-674-07311-8 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references and index. 327 $tFront matter --$tCONTENTS --$tFIGURES --$tAUTHOR'S NOTE --$tPHYSICAL INTUITION --$tI. 1859 --$t1. THE APRIORIST --$t2. THE HISTORICAL WAY --$t3. THE LOGICAL WAY --$t4 THE COGNITIVE WAY --$tII. EQUIDYNAMICS --$t5. STIRRING --$t6. SHAKING --$t7. BOUNCING --$t8. UNIFYING --$tIII. BEYOND PHYSICS --$t9. 1859 AGAIN --$t10. APPLIED BIOEQUIDYNAMICS --$t11. INACCURACY, ERROR, AND OTHER FLUCTUATIONS --$tIV. BEFORE AND AFTER --$t12. THE EXOGENOUS ZONE --$t13. THE ELEMENTS OF EQUIDYNAMICS --$t14. PREHISTORY AND META - HISTORY --$tNOTES --$tGLOSSARY --$tREFERENCES --$tINDEX 330 $aTychomancy-meaning "the divination of chances"-presents a set of rules for inferring the physical probabilities of outcomes from the causal or dynamic properties of the systems that produce them. Probabilities revealed by the rules are wide-ranging: they include the probability of getting a 5 on a die roll, the probability distributions found in statistical physics, and the probabilities that underlie many prima facie judgments about fitness in evolutionary biology. Michael Strevens makes three claims about the rules. First, they are reliable. Second, they are known, though not fully consciously, to all human beings: they constitute a key part of the physical intuition that allows us to navigate around the world safely in the absence of formal scientific knowledge. Third, they have played a crucial but unrecognized role in several major scientific innovations. A large part of Tychomancy is devoted to this historical role for probability inference rules. Strevens first analyzes James Clerk Maxwell's extraordinary, apparently a priori, deduction of the molecular velocity distribution in gases, which launched statistical physics. Maxwell did not derive his distribution from logic alone, Strevens proposes, but rather from probabilistic knowledge common to all human beings, even infants as young as six months old. Strevens then turns to Darwin's theory of natural selection, the statistics of measurement, and the creation of models of complex systems, contending in each case that these elements of science could not have emerged when or how they did without the ability to "eyeball" the values of physical probabilities. 606 $aEmpiricism 606 $aInference 606 $aProbabilities 615 0$aEmpiricism. 615 0$aInference. 615 0$aProbabilities. 676 $a003/.1 700 $aStrevens$b Michael$01145008 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910808010803321 996 $aTychomancy$94021798 997 $aUNINA