LEADER 06954oam 22013094 450 001 9910807903703321 005 20240402050119.0 010 $a1-4623-2552-1 010 $a1-4527-9448-0 010 $a9786612841132 010 $a1-282-84113-0 010 $a1-4518-7020-5 035 $a(CKB)3170000000055003 035 $a(EBL)1607840 035 $a(SSID)ssj0001488793 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11863883 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001488793 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)11463818 035 $a(PQKB)11588299 035 $a(OCoLC)466183813 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1607840 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2008162 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055003 100 $a20020129d2008 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcnu|||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aVacation Over : $eImplications for the Caribbean of Opening U.S.-Cuba Tourism /$fRafael Romeu 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2008. 215 $a1 online resource (64 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 225 0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/08/162 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4519-1473-3 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aContents; I. Introduction; II. Adapting Gravity Trade Theory; III. Data; IV. Estimation; V. Conclusions; Tables; 1. Descriptive Statistics of Caribbean Tourism; 2. Destination Tourist Base Concentration; 3. OECD and Caribbean Country Groups; 4. Hurricanes Making Landfall, 1995-2004; 5. Gravity Estimates of Caribbean Tourism; 6. Cuba: Estimates of Bilateral Tourist Arrivals; 7. The Impact on the Caribbean of Opening U.S. tourism to Cuba; 8. Alternative Estimates of U.S.-Cuba Unrestricted Tourism in the Caribbean; 9. Model 1: Projected Arrivals from Gravity Estimates 327 $a10. Model 3: Long-term Gravity Estimation with Industry Costs Figures; 1. OECD Tourist Arrivals; 2. Cuba-U.S. Tourism Distortions; 3. Evolution of Cuba in Caribbean Tourism; 4. Distribution of Tourist within Destinations; 5. Top Five Clients of Caribbean Destinations, 1995-2004; 6. Top Five Destinations of OECD Visitors, 1995-2004; 7. Clustering by Tourism Preferences 1995-2004; 8. Clustering by Fundamentals and Culture; 9. Cost Comparison Across Caribbean; 10. Market Concentration Based on Hotel Rooms, 1996-2004; 11. Airlines Owned by OECD and Caribbean Countries 327 $a12. Modeling of Tourist from the U.S.A 13. Modeling of Tourist Arrivals to Cuba; 14. Hotel Capacity Utilization; 15. Before and After Assuming U.S. Tourists New to Caribbean; 16. Pie Chart of Visitor Distribution Assuming All New U.S. Tourists; 17. Before and After Assuming No New U.S. Tourists; 18. Pie Chart of Visitor Distribution Assuming No New U.S. Tourists; 19. Map Assuming U.S. Arrivals Divert from the Rest of the Caribbean; 20. Caribbean by U.S. Arrivals and OECD by Arrivals to Cuba; 21. Gravity Estimates of Long-term Adjustment of Destinations; 22. Pie Charts of Gravity Estimates 327 $a23. Gravity Estimates of Percent Change in Arrivals 24. OECD, Caribbean, Relative Size with Open Tourism; VI. References; VII. Appendix 330 3 $aAn opening of Cuba to U.S. tourism would represent a seismic shift in the Caribbean's tourism industry. This study models the impact of such a potential opening by estimating a counterfactual that captures the current bilateral restriction on tourism between the two countries. After controlling for natural disasters, trade agreements, and other factors, the results show that a hypothetical liberalization of Cuba-U.S. tourism would increase long-term regional arrivals. Neighboring destinations would lose the implicit protection the current restriction affords them, and Cuba would gain market share, but this would be partially offset in the short-run by the redistribution of non-U.S. tourists currently in Cuba. The results also suggest that Caribbean countries have in general not lowered their dependency on U.S. tourists, leaving them vulnerable to this potential change. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2008/162 606 $aTourism$zCaribbean Area$xEconometric models 606 $aTourism$zCuba$xEconometric models 606 $aInternational economic relations$xEconometric models 606 $aTourism$xEconometric models 606 $aEconometrics$2imf 606 $aExports and Imports$2imf 606 $aIndustries: Hospital,Travel and Tourism$2imf 606 $aNatural Disasters$2imf 606 $aSports$2imf 606 $aGambling$2imf 606 $aRestaurants$2imf 606 $aRecreation$2imf 606 $aTourism$2imf 606 $aEconometric Modeling: General$2imf 606 $aClimate$2imf 606 $aNatural Disasters and Their Management$2imf 606 $aGlobal Warming$2imf 606 $aTrade Policy$2imf 606 $aInternational Trade Organizations$2imf 606 $aHospitality, leisure & tourism industries$2imf 606 $aEconometrics & economic statistics$2imf 606 $aNatural disasters$2imf 606 $aInternational economics$2imf 606 $aGravity models$2imf 606 $aTrade agreements$2imf 606 $aTrade liberalization$2imf 606 $aEconometric models$2imf 606 $aCommercial treaties$2imf 606 $aCommercial policy$2imf 607 $aCuba$xForeign economic relations$zUnited States$xEconometric models 607 $aUnited States$xForeign economic relations$zCuba$xEconometric models 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 0$aTourism$xEconometric models. 615 0$aTourism$xEconometric models. 615 0$aInternational economic relations$xEconometric models. 615 0$aTourism$xEconometric models. 615 7$aEconometrics 615 7$aExports and Imports 615 7$aIndustries: Hospital,Travel and Tourism 615 7$aNatural Disasters 615 7$aSports 615 7$aGambling 615 7$aRestaurants 615 7$aRecreation 615 7$aTourism 615 7$aEconometric Modeling: General 615 7$aClimate 615 7$aNatural Disasters and Their Management 615 7$aGlobal Warming 615 7$aTrade Policy 615 7$aInternational Trade Organizations 615 7$aHospitality, leisure & tourism industries 615 7$aEconometrics & economic statistics 615 7$aNatural disasters 615 7$aInternational economics 615 7$aGravity models 615 7$aTrade agreements 615 7$aTrade liberalization 615 7$aEconometric models 615 7$aCommercial treaties 615 7$aCommercial policy 676 $a338.47917290452 700 $aRomeu$b Rafael$01630339 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910807903703321 996 $aVacation Over$94049078 997 $aUNINA