LEADER 03456nam 2200649 450 001 9910798695703321 005 20230125204643.0 010 $a1-60649-503-8 035 $a(CKB)3710000000830857 035 $a(BEP)4648346 035 $a(OCoLC)957560168 035 $a(CaBNVSL)swl00406795 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL4648346 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr11249437 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL949046 035 $a(OCoLC)958559630 035 $a(CaSebORM)9781606495032 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC4648346 035 $a(EXLCZ)993710000000830857 100 $a20160829d2016 fy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcnu|||||||| 181 $2rdacontent 182 $2rdamedia 183 $2rdacarrier 200 10$aDemand forecasting for managers /$fStephan Kolassa, Enno Siemsen 205 $aFirst edition. 210 1$aNew York, New York (222 East 46th Street, New York, NY 10017) :$cBusiness Expert Press,$d2016. 215 $a1 online resource (158 pages) 225 1 $aSupply and operations management collection,$x2156-8200 311 $a1-60649-502-X 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references (pages 147-153) and index. 327 $aPart 1. Introduction -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Choice under uncertainty -- 3. A simple example -- Part 2. Forecasting basics -- 4. Know your time series -- 5. Time series decomposition -- Part 3. Forecasting models -- 6. Exponential smoothing -- 7. ARIMA models -- 8. Causal models and leading indicators -- 9. Count data and intermittent demands -- 10. Human judgment -- Part 4. Forecasting quality -- 11. Forecast quality measures -- 12. Forecasting competitions -- Part 5. Forecasting organization -- 13. Sales and operations planning -- 14. Forecasting hierarchies -- References -- Index. 330 3 $aMost decisions and plans in a firm require a forecast. Not matching supply with demand can make or break any business, and that is why forecasting is so invaluable. Forecasting can appear as a frightening topic with many arcane equations to master. We therefore start out from the very basics and provide a nontechnical overview of common forecasting techniques as well as organizational aspects of creating a robust forecasting process. We also discuss how to measure forecast accuracy to hold people accountable and guide continuous improvement. This book does not require prior knowledge of higher mathematics, statistics, or operations research. It is designed to serve as a first introduction to the nonexpert, such as a manager overseeing a forecasting group, or an MBA student who needs to be familiar with the broad outlines of forecasting without specializing in it. 410 0$aSupply and operations management collection.$x2156-8200 606 $aBusiness forecasting 610 $aforecasting 610 $asales and operations planning 610 $adecision making 610 $aservice levels 610 $astatistics thinking 610 $achoice under uncertainty 610 $aforecast accuracy 610 $aintermittent demand 610 $aforecasting competition 610 $ajudgmental forecasting 615 0$aBusiness forecasting. 676 $a658.40355 700 $aKolassa$b Stephan.$01566947 702 $aSiemsen$b Enno. 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910798695703321 996 $aDemand forecasting for managers$93837971 997 $aUNINA