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200 14$aThe logic of miracles $emaking sense of rare, really rare, and impossibly rare events /$fLa?szlo? Me?ro? ; edited by David Kramer
210  1$aNew Haven, Connecticut ;$aLondon, England :$cYale University Press,$d[2018]
210  4$d©2018
215   $a1 online resource (288 pages)
311 0 $a0-300-22415-X 
320   $aIncludes bibliographical references and index.
327   $tFront matter --$tContents --$tPreface --$tAcknowledgments --$tPART ONE. Secular Miracles --$t1. On the Existence of Miracles --$t2. The Mild World and the Wild World --$t3. The Source of Miracles: Gödel's Idea --$tPART TWO. The Mild World --$t4. The Power of the Normal Distribution --$t5. The Extremities of Mildovia --$t6. The Sources of Equilibrium --$tPART THREE. The Wild World --$t7. The Mathematics of the Unpredictable --$t8. Scale-Invariance --$t9. The Levels of Wildness --$t10. Life in Wildovia --$tPART FOUR. Preparing for the Inconceivable --$t11. Adapting to Wildovia --$t12. Antifragility --$t13. Convertible Knowledge --$tEpilogue --$tNotes --$tBibliography --$tIndex
330   $aWe live in a much more turbulent world than we like to think, but the science we use to analyze economic, financial, and statistical events mostly disregards the world's essentially chaotic nature. We need to get used to the idea that wildly improbable events are actually part of the natural order. The renowned Hungarian mathematician and psychologist László Mérs' explains how the wild and mild worlds (which he names Wildovia and Mildovia) coexist, and that different laws apply to each. Even if we live in an ultimately wild universe, he argues, we're better off pretending that it obeys Mildovian laws. Doing so may amount to a self-fulfilling prophecy and create an island of predictability in a very rough sea. Perched on the ragged border between economics and complexity theory, Mérs' proposes to extend the reach of science to subjects previously considered outside its grasp: the unpredictable, unrepeatable, highly improbable events we commonly call "miracles."
606   $aProbabilities
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702   $aKramer$b David
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