LEADER 06707nam 2201405 450 001 9910792788903321 005 20200520144314.0 024 7 $a10.1515/9781400885091 035 $a(CKB)3710000001072625 035 $a(DE-B1597)477788 035 $a(OCoLC)975485375 035 $a(OCoLC)984642986 035 $a(DE-B1597)9781400885091 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL4910404 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr11428896 035 $a(OCoLC)1002699711 035 $a(PPN)201993783 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC4910404 035 $a(EXLCZ)993710000001072625 100 $a20170925h20172003 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcnu|||||||| 181 $2rdacontent 182 $2rdamedia 183 $2rdacarrier 200 10$aWhy stock markets crash $ecritical events in complex financial systems /$fDidier Sornette, with a new preface by the author 210 1$aPrinceton, [New Jersey] ;$aOxford, [England] :$cPrinceton University Press,$d2017. 210 4$dİ2003 215 $a1 online resource (417 pages) $cillustrations 225 0 $aPrinceton Science Library ;$v49 311 $a0-691-17595-0 311 $a1-4008-8509-4 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references and index. 327 $tFrontmatter -- $tContents -- $tPreface to the Princeton Science Library Edition -- $tPreface to the 2002 Edition -- $tChapter 1. Financial Crashes: What, How, Why, and When? -- $tChapter 2. Fundamentals of Financial Markets -- $tChapter 3. Financial Crashes Are "Outliers" -- $tChapter 4. Positive Feedbacks -- $tChapter 5. Modeling Financial Bubbles and Market Crashes -- $tChapter 6. Hierarchies, Complex Fractal Dimensions, and Log-Periodicity -- $tChapter 7. Autopsy of Major Crashes: Universal Exponents and Log-Periodicity -- $tChapter 8. Bubbles, Crises, and Crashes in Emergent Markets -- $tChapter 9. Prediction of Bubbles, Crashes, and Antibubbles -- $tChapter 10. 2050: The End of the Growth Era? -- $tReferences -- $tIndex 330 $aThe scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials. In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash. Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse. Sornette proposes a radically different view: the underlying cause can be sought months and even years before the abrupt, catastrophic event in the build-up of cooperative speculation, which often translates into an accelerating rise of the market price, otherwise known as a "bubble." Anchoring his sophisticated, step-by-step analysis in leading-edge physical and statistical modeling techniques, he unearths remarkable insights and some predictions--among them, that the "end of the growth era" will occur around 2050. Sornette probes major historical precedents, from the decades-long "tulip mania" in the Netherlands that wilted suddenly in 1637 to the South Sea Bubble that ended with the first huge market crash in England in 1720, to the Great Crash of October 1929 and Black Monday in 1987, to cite just a few. He concludes that most explanations other than cooperative self-organization fail to account for the subtle bubbles by which the markets lay the groundwork for catastrophe. Any investor or investment professional who seeks a genuine understanding of looming financial disasters should read this book. Physicists, geologists, biologists, economists, and others will welcome Why Stock Markets Crash as a highly original "scientific tale," as Sornette aptly puts it, of the exciting and sometimes fearsome--but no longer quite so unfathomable--world of stock markets. 410 0$aPrinceton science library. 606 $aStocks$xPrices$xHistory 606 $aFinancial crises$zUnited States$xHistory 607 $aUnited States$2fast 610 $aAsia. 610 $aBlack Monday. 610 $aDow Jones Industrial Average. 610 $aHong Kong. 610 $aLatin America. 610 $aLouis Bachelier. 610 $aNasdaq index. 610 $aNasdaq. 610 $aNikkei. 610 $aRussia. 610 $aSouth Sea bubble. 610 $aanti-imitation. 610 $aantibubble. 610 $aarbitrage opportunities. 610 $abubble. 610 $acollapse. 610 $acomplex systems. 610 $acomputational methods. 610 $acooperative behavior. 610 $acooperative speculation. 610 $acrash hazard. 610 $acurrency crash. 610 $aderivatives. 610 $adiscrete scale invariance. 610 $adrawdown. 610 $aefficient market. 610 $aemergent markets. 610 $aextreme events. 610 $afinancial crashes. 610 $afinite-time singularity. 610 $aforward prediction. 610 $afractals. 610 $afree lunch. 610 $agold. 610 $ahazard rate. 610 $ahedging. 610 $aherding. 610 $aimitation. 610 $ainsurance portfolio. 610 $alog-periodicity. 610 $amarket failure. 610 $anatural scientists. 610 $aoutlier. 610 $apopulation dynamics. 610 $apositive feedback. 610 $apower law. 610 $aprediction. 610 $aprice-driven model. 610 $arandom walk. 610 $arational agent. 610 $arenormalization group. 610 $areturns. 610 $arisk-driven model. 610 $arisk. 610 $aself-organization. 610 $aself-similarity. 610 $asocial network. 610 $asocial scientists. 610 $aspeculative bubble. 610 $astock market crash. 610 $astock market indices. 610 $astock market prices. 610 $astock market. 610 $asuperhumans. 610 $asustainability. 610 $atronics boom. 610 $atulip mania. 610 $aworld economy. 615 0$aStocks$xPrices$xHistory. 615 0$aFinancial crises$xHistory. 676 $a332.63/222 686 $aQK 650$2rvk 700 $aSornette$b Didier$f1957-$062362 701 $aSornette$b Didier$062362 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910792788903321 996 $aWhy stock markets crash$937758 997 $aUNINA