LEADER 05618nam 2200649 450 001 9910779044003321 005 20220601173429.0 010 $a1-280-78591-8 010 $a9786613696304 010 $a2-8178-0251-9 035 $a(CKB)2550000000097477 035 $a(EBL)884501 035 $a(OCoLC)779468301 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000878451 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11454310 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000878451 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10850650 035 $a(PQKB)11477132 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC884501 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC6717020 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL6717020 035 $a(PPN)159082889 035 $a(EXLCZ)992550000000097477 100 $a20220601d2011 uy 0 101 0 $aspa 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aAnalyse statistique des risques agro-environnementaux $eetudes de cas /$fby David Makowski, Herve Monod 210 1$aParis :$cSpringer,$d[2011] 210 4$dİ2011 215 $a1 online resource (171 p.) 225 1 $aCollection Statistique et probabilites appliquees 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a2-8178-0250-0 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references and index. 327 $aTitle Page; Copyright Page; Collection Statistique et probabilite?s applique?es dirige?e par Yadolah Dodge; Avant-propos; Table of Contents; Chapitre 1 Introduction; Chapitre 2 Notions de base; 2.1 Variables ale?atoires et lois de probabilite?; 2.1.1 Variable ale?atoire; 2.1.2 Variables ale?atoires discre?tes; 2.1.3 Variables ale?atoires continues; 2.1.4 Valeurs caracte?ristiques d'une variable ale?atoire; 2.1.5 De?pendance entre variables ale?atoires; 2.2 La notion de mode?le en statistique; 2.2.1 Description; 2.2.2 Fonction de vraisemblance d'un mode?le statistique; 2.3 Infe?rence statistique 327 $a2.3.1 Approche fre?quentiste et approche baye?sienne2.3.2 Estimateur; 2.3.3 Test statistique et intervalle de confiance; 2.3.4 Infe?rence baye?sienne; 2.4 Les quatre e?tapes de la mode?lisation; 2.4.1 De?finition des variables; 2.4.2 Choix des e?quations; 2.4.3 Estimation des parame?tres; 2.4.4 E?valuation des mode?les; 2.4.5 Importance de la planification expe?rimentale; 2.5 Exercices; Chapitre 3 Mode?les statistiques ete?valuation des risques; 3.1 Mode?le line?aire; 3.1.1 De?finition; 3.1.2 Ge?ne?ralite? du mode?le line?aire; 3.1.3 Estimation des parame?tres; 3.1.4 E?valuation et limites du mode?le line?aire 327 $a3.1.5 Exemple : pre?diction de la teneur en azote et de la teneur en prote?ines des grains de ble?3.2 Mode?le line?aire ge?ne?ralise?; 3.2.1 De?finition; 3.3 Mode?le non line?aire; 3.3.1 De?finition; 3.4 Mode?le hie?rarchique; 3.4.1 De?finition et inte?re?t; 3.4.2 Exemple : reliquat d'azote dans le sol a? la re?colte; 3.4.3 Exemple : variabilite? intra-parcellaire des densite?s de mauvaises herbes; 3.5 Estimation de valeurs extre?mes parr e?gression quantile; 3.5.1 De?finition; 3.5.2 Exemple : risque de scle?rotinia du colza; 3.6 Exercices; Chapitre 4 Optimisation des de?cisions et gestion des risques 327 $a4.1 Les quatre e?tapes de l'optimisation4.1.1 Pre?sentation; 4.1.2 Exemple : de?termination d'une tempe?rature optimale pour le traitement thermique du bois destine? a? l'exportation; 4.2 Optimisation d'une re?gle de de?cision binaire par analyse ROC; 4.2.1 Introduction; 4.2.2 Re?gle de de?cision binaire et ses deux types d'erreur; 4.2.3 Estimation et e?valuation par la me?thode ROC; 4.2.4 Exemple : gestion du risque d'invasion par les mauvaises herbes; 4.2.5 Exemple : gestion du risque de scle?rotinia du colza; 4.3 Optimisation d'une variable de?cisionnelle par simulation; 4.3.1 Me?thode 327 $a4.3.2 Exemple : calcul de doses optimales d'engrais4.4 Exercices; Chapitre 5 Analyse et communication de l'incertitude; 5.1 Les diffe?rents types d'incertitude et leurs conse?quences; 5.2 De?crire l'incertitude par des distributions de probabilite?; 5.2.1 Objectif; 5.2.2 Exemple base? sur des calculs analytiques : risque d'invasion par une espe?ce nuisible; 5.2.4 Exemple combinant un mode?le dynamique et des mesures en cours de saison : estimation du carbone du sol; 5.3 Calculer des indices de sensibilite?; 5.3.1 Objectifs et de?finitions 327 $a5.3.2 Exemple base? sur des simulations de Monte-Carlo : reliquat d'azote mine?ral dans le sol 330 $aCet ouvrage constitue un manuel pratique qui s'adresse aux ing nieurs, scientifiques et tudiants travaillant sur les risques agro-environnementaux. Il constitue une bonne introduction aux principaux types de mod le et aux principales m thodes statistiques utiles pour l analyse de ces risques. L utilisation de chaque m thode est illustr e par une ou plusieurs applications traitant de probl mes concrets (pollution de l eau par les nitrates, invasion par des esp ces nuisibles, flux de g nes d une culture OGM vers une culture non OGM etc.). Les programmes informatiques utilis?'s pour d velopper le 410 0$aCollection Statistique et probabilite?s applique?es. 606 $aAgriculture$xRisk management 615 0$aAgriculture$xRisk management. 676 $a630.681 700 $aMakowski$b David$f1972-$0926057 702 $aMonod$b Herve 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910779044003321 996 $aAnalyse statistique des risques agro-environnementaux$93801641 997 $aUNINA LEADER 05421nam 2200661 450 001 9910791159603321 005 20230126205407.0 010 $a1-4742-2548-9 035 $a(CKB)2550000001351876 035 $a(EBL)1778888 035 $a(SSID)ssj0001412025 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11803971 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001412025 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)11406982 035 $a(PQKB)10688053 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1778888 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1778888 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10927443 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL641888 035 $a(OCoLC)890442132 035 $a(EXLCZ)992550000001351876 100 $a20140913h20141992 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 14$aThe industrial revolution /$fPat Hudson 210 1$aLondon, [England] ;$aNew York, [New York] :$cHodder Arnold,$d2014. 210 4$dİ1992 215 $a1 online resource (262 p.) 225 1 $aReading History 300 $aIncludes index. 311 $a1-322-10637-1 311 $a0-7131-6531-6 327 $aCover; Title; Copyright; Contents; List of figures; List of tables; General Editor''s Preface; Preface and Acknowledgements; Introduction; Measurement; Specifying the industrial revolution; The causes of the industrial revolution; Part One: Writing and Rewriting History; 1 Perspectives on the Industrial Revolution; Early interpretations; The revolution challenged; Economic cycles and the industrial revolution; Economic growth models; Dependency theories; The transition debate; Heroic accounts; Technology; Capital formation; The factory system and its alternatives; The standard of living 327 $aClass and class conflictCurrent perspectives; 2 The Economy and the State; The macroeconomic perspective; Macro estimates and macro interpretations; Method and measurement; Sources; Identifying the industrial revolution; Productivity and innovation; The state; Central government revenue; Government expenditure and war; The impact of the Napoleonic Wars; Economy, society and the fiscal military state; Conclusion; 3 Agriculture and the Industrial Revolution; Productivity and innovation; Productivity estimates; Technical innovations; Capitalist farming; Enclosure 327 $aThe marketing of agricultural produceThe dynamic links; The release of labour; The supply of food, raw materials and exports; Incomes, real incomes and the home market; Agriculture as a consumer of goods and services; The release of capital; Conclusion; Part Two: The Industrial Revolution; 4 Regions and Industries; The regional perspective; National considerations; Regional diversity; Proto-industrialisation: the location; Proto-industrialisation: dynamic influences; Capital, labour and innovation; The West Riding of Yorkshire; Lancashire; Birmingham and the West Midlands 327 $aCoalfield industrialisation: the case of Northumberland and DurhamDeindustrialisation: the case of the Weald; Cumbria: a case of contrasts; Conclusion; 5 Demography and Labour; Population change; Wrigley and Schofield''s analysis; Problems with the preventive check; Proto-industrialisation and demography; Proletarianisation, work opportunities and the family wage economy; Mortality; Urbanisation; Theories of urban growth; The impact of urbanisation; Migration; Population growth and economic growth; The family and labour supply; Conclusion; 6 Consumption and Commerce; The sources of demand 327 $aDemand and innovationInternal demand; A consumer revolution; A consumer revolution?; The integration of supply and demand; External commerce, colonies and markets; The pattern of overseas trade; The impact of overseas trade; Gentlemanly capitalism and overseas expansion; The slave trade; Slavery and the industrial revolution; Slavery: an assessment; Conclusion; 7 Class and Gender; Class and the industrial revolution; Crime and the dangerous classes; Factors in the formation of the working class; The industrial revolution without class?; Capitalist class or classes? 327 $aGentlemanly capitalism and the industrial revolution 330 $aThis is an introduction to the Industrial Revolution which offers an integrated account of the economic and social aspects of change during the period. Recent revisionist thinking has implied that fundamental change in economic, social and political life at the time of the Industrial Revolution was minimal or non-existent. The author challenges this interpretation, arguing that the process of revision has gone too far; emphasizing continuity at the expense of change and neglecting many historically unique features of the economy and society. Elements given short shrift in many current interpre 410 0$aReading history. 606 $aIndustrial revolution$zGreat Britain$xHistoriography 606 $aIndustrial policy$zGreat Britain$xHistoriography 607 $aGreat Britain$xEconomic conditions$xHistoriography 607 $aGreat Britain$xSocial conditions$xHistoriography 615 0$aIndustrial revolution$xHistoriography. 615 0$aIndustrial policy$xHistoriography. 676 $a338.0941 700 $aHudson$b Pat$f1948-$0136785 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910791159603321 996 $aIndustrial revolution$914525 997 $aUNINA