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010   $a9786613829481
010   $a1-4519-0863-6
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035   $a(IMF)WPIEE2006067
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100   $a20020129d2006      uf             0
101 0 $aeng
135   $aur|n|---|||||
181   $ctxt
182   $cc
183   $acr
200 10$aPrimary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries : $eA "Fan-Chart" Approach /$fOya Celasun, Xavier Debrun, Jonathan Ostry
210  1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2006.
215   $a1 online resource (54 p.)
225 1 $aIMF Working Papers
300   $a"March 2006."
311   $a1-4518-6327-6 
320   $aIncludes bibliographical references.
327   $a""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS AND RISK""; ""III. DEBT DYNAMICS AND THE CONDUCT OF FISCAL POLICY""; ""IV. RISKS TO DEBT SUSTAINABILITY IN FIVE EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES""; ""V. CONCLUSION""; ""Appendix""; ""REFERENCES""
330 3 $aThis paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algorithm for the path of public debt under realistic shock configurations, combining pure economic disturbances (to growth, interest rates, and exchange rates), the endogenous policy response to these, and the possible shocks arising from fiscal policy itself. The paper emphasizes the role of fiscal behavior, as well as the structure of disturbances facing the economy and due to fiscal policy, in shaping the risk profile of public debt. Fan charts for debt are derived from the "marriage" between the pattern of shocks on the one hand and the endogenous response of fiscal policy on the other. Applications to Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey are used to illustrate the approach and its limitations.
410  0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2006/067
606   $aDebts, Public$xEconometric models
606   $aFiscal policy$xEconometric models
606   $aExports and Imports$2imf
606   $aMacroeconomics$2imf
606   $aPublic Finance$2imf
606   $aProduction and Operations Management$2imf
606   $aNational Deficit Surplus$2imf
606   $aDebt$2imf
606   $aDebt Management$2imf
606   $aSovereign Debt$2imf
606   $aSimulation Methods$2imf
606   $aFiscal Policy$2imf
606   $aInternational Lending and Debt Problems$2imf
606   $aMacroeconomics: Production$2imf
606   $aPublic finance & taxation$2imf
606   $aInternational economics$2imf
606   $aPublic debt$2imf
606   $aFiscal policy$2imf
606   $aFiscal stance$2imf
606   $aDebt sustainability analysis$2imf
606   $aOutput gap$2imf
606   $aExternal debt$2imf
606   $aProduction$2imf
606   $aDebts, Public$2imf
606   $aDebts, External$2imf
606   $aEconomic theory$2imf
607   $aTurkey$2imf
615  0$aDebts, Public$xEconometric models.
615  0$aFiscal policy$xEconometric models.
615  7$aExports and Imports
615  7$aMacroeconomics
615  7$aPublic Finance
615  7$aProduction and Operations Management
615  7$aNational Deficit Surplus
615  7$aDebt
615  7$aDebt Management
615  7$aSovereign Debt
615  7$aSimulation Methods
615  7$aFiscal Policy
615  7$aInternational Lending and Debt Problems
615  7$aMacroeconomics: Production
615  7$aPublic finance & taxation
615  7$aInternational economics
615  7$aPublic debt
615  7$aFiscal policy
615  7$aFiscal stance
615  7$aDebt sustainability analysis
615  7$aOutput gap
615  7$aExternal debt
615  7$aProduction
615  7$aDebts, Public
615  7$aDebts, External
615  7$aEconomic theory
700   $aCelasun$b Oya$01462106
701   $aDebrun$b Xavier$01464155
701   $aOstry$b Jonathan$01436213
712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund.$bResearch and Fiscal Affairs Dept.
801  0$bDcWaIMF
906   $aBOOK
912   $a9910788701103321
996   $aPrimary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries$93673719
997   $aUNINA