LEADER 04909oam 22011174 450 001 9910788695003321 005 20230828235748.0 010 $a1-4623-4475-5 010 $a1-4527-8041-2 010 $a1-283-51807-4 010 $a1-4519-8695-5 010 $a9786613830524 035 $a(CKB)3360000000443976 035 $a(EBL)3014448 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000943004 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11528414 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000943004 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10974674 035 $a(PQKB)11451855 035 $a(OCoLC)694141107 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC3014448 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2006172 035 $a(EXLCZ)993360000000443976 100 $a20020129d2006 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aOutput Drops and the Shocks That Matter /$fPaolo Mauro, Torbjorn Becker 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2006. 215 $a1 online resource (43 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $a"July 2006". 311 $a1-4518-6432-9 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $a""Contents""; ""I. MOTIVATION AND RELATED STUDIES""; ""II. OUTPUT DROPS""; ""III. SHOCKS""; ""IV. MULTIVARIATE PROBIT ANALYSIS""; ""V. ROBUSTNESS AND EXTENSIONS""; ""VI. CONCLUSIONS""; ""APPENDIX TABLES AND FIGURES""; ""APPENDIX I. HODRICK-PRESCOTT-FILTER BASED DEFINITION OF EVENTS""; ""APPENDIX II. KERNEL DENSITY PLOTS: OUTPUT DROPS AND 1970 PER CAPITA GDP""; ""APPENDIX III. DATA SOURCES AND DEFINITIONS""; ""REFERENCES"" 330 3 $aOutput drops are usually associated with major disruption for the residents of affected countries, both directly and often through ensuing, prolonged growth slowdowns. Using a century of data, we document that output drops are more frequent in countries at a lower stage of economic development. We then turn to a more in-depth analysis of the post-1970 era, examining output drops in a large panel of countries, and systematically relating them to a variety of shocks. We compute the expected cost of each type of shock as a function of the shock's frequency, the likelihood that the shock will be associated with a drop in output, and the size of the output drop. The largest costs are associated with external financial shocks (notably, sudden stops in financial flows) for emerging markets, and with real external shocks (in particular, terms-of-trade shocks) for developing countries. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2006/172 606 $aEconomic development 606 $aInput-output analysis 606 $aExports and Imports$2imf 606 $aFinance: General$2imf 606 $aFinancial Risk Management$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)$2imf 606 $aInternational Investment$2imf 606 $aLong-term Capital Movements$2imf 606 $aFinancial Crises$2imf 606 $aEmpirical Studies of Trade$2imf 606 $aForeign Exchange$2imf 606 $aInternational economics$2imf 606 $aEconomic & financial crises & disasters$2imf 606 $aFinance$2imf 606 $aEmerging and frontier financial markets$2imf 606 $aSudden stops$2imf 606 $aFinancial crises$2imf 606 $aTerms of trade$2imf 606 $aCurrency crises$2imf 606 $aFinancial services industry$2imf 606 $aCapital movements$2imf 606 $aEconomic policy$2imf 606 $anternational cooperation$2imf 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 0$aEconomic development. 615 0$aInput-output analysis. 615 7$aExports and Imports 615 7$aFinance: General 615 7$aFinancial Risk Management 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) 615 7$aInternational Investment 615 7$aLong-term Capital Movements 615 7$aFinancial Crises 615 7$aEmpirical Studies of Trade 615 7$aForeign Exchange 615 7$aInternational economics 615 7$aEconomic & financial crises & disasters 615 7$aFinance 615 7$aEmerging and frontier financial markets 615 7$aSudden stops 615 7$aFinancial crises 615 7$aTerms of trade 615 7$aCurrency crises 615 7$aFinancial services industry 615 7$aCapital movements 615 7$aEconomic policy 615 7$anternational cooperation 700 $aMauro$b Paolo$01462078 701 $aBecker$b Torbjorn$01558693 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund.$bResearch Dept. 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910788695003321 996 $aOutput Drops and the Shocks That Matter$93823278 997 $aUNINA