LEADER 06322oam 22010934 450 001 9910788693803321 005 20230721033305.0 010 $a1-4623-9317-9 010 $a1-4527-6930-3 010 $a1-283-51792-2 010 $a1-4519-1021-5 010 $a9786613830371 035 $a(CKB)3360000000443962 035 $a(EBL)1608455 035 $a(SSID)ssj0001474739 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11901034 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001474739 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)11472494 035 $a(PQKB)11355853 035 $a(OCoLC)535146892 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1608455 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2007004 035 $a(EXLCZ)993360000000443962 100 $a20020129d2007 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aDebt Dynamics and Global Imbalances : $eSome Conventional Views Reconsidered /$fGuy Meredith 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2007. 215 $a1 online resource (56 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $a"January 2007." 311 $a1-4518-6568-6 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 51-54). 327 $aContents; I. Introduction; II. Stylized Facts; A. Evolution of Global Imbalances; Figures; 1. U.S. External Balances, 1979-2005; 2. Movements in Real U.S. Trade Balance: 1995-2005 Versus 1979-89; 3. U.S. Imports and Exports, 1980-2005; 4. U.S. Real Effective Exchange Rate: 1995-2005 Versus 1979-89; 5. U.S. Shares in World GDP, 1980-2005; 6. Ratio of Real Private Consumption to GDP, 1985-20005; 7. U.S. Net Foreign Assets, 1982-2005; 8. U.S. External Assets and Liabilities, 1982-2005; 9. ROW Holdings of Official Reserves, 1971-2005; B. Real Interest Rates; Tables 327 $a1. U.S. Real Interest Rates and Growth Rates, 1900-200510. Yield on Inflation-Indexed U.S. Treasuries, 1997-2006; 2. Real Returns on U.S. External Assets and Liabilities, 1953-2004; 11. Real Yields on U.S. External Assets and Liabilities, 1977-2005; 12. U.S. Net International Investment Income, 1977-2005; 13. Valuation Adjustments to U.S. NFA, Cumulative Average, 1983-2005; III. Debt Dynamics; 14. Yields on BAA Corporate Bonds Versus U.S. Treasuries, 1953-2006; IV. Simulation Model; A. Structure; B. Parameterization; V. Simulation Results; A. Initial Equilibrium; B. Calibration of Shocks 327 $aC. Baseline Simulation 15. Baseline Shocks to Model, 1995-2025; 16. Baseline Simulation Results, 1995-2025; 17. Baseline Simulation Results, 1995-2100; 18. U.S. Real Growth Rate and Marginal Product of Capital; 19. U.S. and ROW Consumption, 1995-2075; D. Alternative Paths for the Shocks; 20. Larger and More Drawn-Out Shocks, 1995-2100; 21. Phase-Out of International Reserve Accumulation, 1995-2025; 22. "Hard-Landing" Scenario, 1995-2025; E. Alternative Parameter Values; 23. Higher Initial Real Interest Rate, 1995-2100; 25. Alternative Trade Price Elasticities, 1995-2150 327 $a24. Increasing Asset Substitutability, 1995-2100 26. Ratio of U.S. to Row GDP, 1995-2010; 27. Higher Foreign Growth, 1995-2025; F. Fiscal Policy; 28. "Twin Deficits": Effect on Trade Balance of Change in Fiscal Balance; VI. Concluding Remarks; Appendix: Consumption, Wealth and Real Interest Rates; A. Infinite-Horizon Model; B. Finite-Horizon Model; References 330 3 $aWe use a general-equilibrium model to explain the rise in global trade and payments imbalances since the mid-1990s, and then to construct adjustment paths to a steady state. Assuming that the shocks giving rise to the imbalances do not suddenly reverse, simulated movements in the U.S. trade deficit and exchange rate are smaller and more gradual than suggested by partial-equilibrium analyses. An important factor reducing the size of the adjustments is a simulated real interest rate on U.S. external liabilities that is below both the interest rate on external assets and the U.S. real economic growth rate. In addition, the adjustment takes place over an extended period without significantly raising the share of U.S. assets in foreign portfolios, in part because depreciation of the dollar requires continued foreign accumulation of U.S. assets just to keep their portfolio share constant. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2007/004 606 $aBalance of trade$zUnited States 606 $aDebts, External$zUnited States 606 $aBanks and Banking$2imf 606 $aExports and Imports$2imf 606 $aForeign Exchange$2imf 606 $aEmpirical Studies of Trade$2imf 606 $aInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects$2imf 606 $aInternational Investment$2imf 606 $aLong-term Capital Movements$2imf 606 $aInternational economics$2imf 606 $aFinance$2imf 606 $aCurrency$2imf 606 $aForeign exchange$2imf 606 $aReal interest rates$2imf 606 $aTrade balance$2imf 606 $aReal exchange rates$2imf 606 $aTrade deficits$2imf 606 $aForeign assets$2imf 606 $aBalance of trade$2imf 606 $aInterest rates$2imf 606 $aInvestments, Foreign$2imf 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 0$aBalance of trade 615 0$aDebts, External 615 7$aBanks and Banking 615 7$aExports and Imports 615 7$aForeign Exchange 615 7$aEmpirical Studies of Trade 615 7$aInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects 615 7$aInternational Investment 615 7$aLong-term Capital Movements 615 7$aInternational economics 615 7$aFinance 615 7$aCurrency 615 7$aForeign exchange 615 7$aReal interest rates 615 7$aTrade balance 615 7$aReal exchange rates 615 7$aTrade deficits 615 7$aForeign assets 615 7$aBalance of trade 615 7$aInterest rates 615 7$aInvestments, Foreign 676 $a335.4 676 $a335.4/12 700 $aMeredith$b Guy$01558681 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund.$bWestern Hemisphere Dept. 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910788693803321 996 $aDebt Dynamics and Global Imbalances$93823266 997 $aUNINA