LEADER 04752oam 22010814 450 001 9910788692403321 005 20230828235713.0 010 $a1-4623-6190-0 010 $a1-4527-1583-1 010 $a1-283-51769-8 010 $a9786613830142 010 $a1-4519-9202-5 035 $a(CKB)3360000000443939 035 $a(EBL)3014539 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000942124 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11582406 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000942124 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10971517 035 $a(PQKB)10551543 035 $a(OCoLC)694141244 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC3014539 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2006197 035 $a(EXLCZ)993360000000443939 100 $a20020129d2006 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aMeasures of Underlying Inflation in the Euro Area : $eAssessment and Role for Informing Monetary Policy /$fEmil Stavrev 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2006. 215 $a1 online resource (37 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $a"August 2006." 311 $a1-4518-6457-4 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $a""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. TAXONOMY OF UNDERLYING INFLATION INDICATORS""; ""III. FEATURES OF THE INDICATORS""; ""IV. FORECASTING METHODOLOGY AND ASSESSMENT OF FORECASTING PERFORMANCE""; ""V. CONCLUDING REMARKS""; ""References"" 330 3 $aThe paper evaluates the 24-month ahead inflation forecasting performance of various indicators of underlying inflation and structural models. The inflation forecast errors resulting from model misspecification are larger than the errors resulting from forecasting of exogenous variables. Also, measures derived using the generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) overperform other measures over the monetary policy horizon and are leading indicators of headline inflation. Trimmed means, although weaker than GDFM indicators, have good forecasting performance, while indicators by permanent exclusion underperform but provide useful information about short-term dynamics. The forecasting performance of theoretically-founded models that relate monetary aggregates, the output gap, and inflation improves with the time horizon but generally falls short of that of the GDFM. A composite measure of underlying inflation, derived by averaging the statistical indicators and the model-based estimates, improves forecast accuracy by eliminating bias and offers valuable insight about the distribution of risks. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2006/197 606 $aInflation (Finance)$zEurope 606 $aMonetary policy$zEurope 606 $aForeign Exchange$2imf 606 $aInflation$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aMoney and Monetary Policy$2imf 606 $aForecasting$2imf 606 $aModel Construction and Estimation$2imf 606 $aModel Evaluation and Selection$2imf 606 $aForecasting and Other Model Applications$2imf 606 $aPrice Level$2imf 606 $aDeflation$2imf 606 $aEnergy: Demand and Supply$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aMonetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General$2imf 606 $aEconomic Forecasting$2imf 606 $aCurrency$2imf 606 $aForeign exchange$2imf 606 $aMonetary economics$2imf 606 $aEconomic forecasting$2imf 606 $aOil prices$2imf 606 $aExchange rates$2imf 606 $aMonetary aggregates$2imf 606 $aMoney supply$2imf 615 0$aInflation (Finance) 615 0$aMonetary policy 615 7$aForeign Exchange 615 7$aInflation 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aMoney and Monetary Policy 615 7$aForecasting 615 7$aModel Construction and Estimation 615 7$aModel Evaluation and Selection 615 7$aForecasting and Other Model Applications 615 7$aPrice Level 615 7$aDeflation 615 7$aEnergy: Demand and Supply 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aMonetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General 615 7$aEconomic Forecasting 615 7$aCurrency 615 7$aForeign exchange 615 7$aMonetary economics 615 7$aEconomic forecasting 615 7$aOil prices 615 7$aExchange rates 615 7$aMonetary aggregates 615 7$aMoney supply 700 $aStavrev$b Emil$01465934 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910788692403321 996 $aMeasures of Underlying Inflation in the Euro Area$93823253 997 $aUNINA