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010   $a9786613822376
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035   $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000939933
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100   $a20020129d2006      uf             0
101 0 $aeng
135   $aur|n|---|||||
181   $ctxt
182   $cc
183   $acr
200 14$aThe Role of Seasonality and Monetary Policy in Inflation Forecasting /$fFrancis Kumah
210  1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2006.
215   $a1 online resource (27 p.)
225 1 $aIMF Working Papers
300   $a"July 2006".
311   $a1-4518-6435-3 
320   $aIncludes bibliographical references.
327   $a""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. INFLATION AND MONETARY POLICY IN THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC""; ""III. SEASONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF CONSUMER PRICES""; ""IV. MODELING AND FORECASTING INFLATION""; ""V. CONCLUDING REMARKS""; ""References""; ""Appendix. Further Empirical Results""
330 3 $aAdequate modeling of the seasonal structure of consumer prices is essential for inflation forecasting. This paper suggests a new econometric approach for jointly determining inflation forecasts and monetary policy stances, particularly where seasonal fluctuations of economic activity and prices are pronounced. In an application of the framework, the paper characterizes and investigates the stability of the seasonal pattern of consumer prices in the Kyrgyz Republic and estimates optimal money growth and implied exchange rate paths along with a jointly determined inflation forecast. The approach uses two broad specifications of an augmented error-correction model-with and without seasonal components. Findings from the paper confirm empirical superiority (in terms of information content and contributions to policymaking) of augmented error-correction models of inflation over single-equation, Box-Jenkins-type general autoregressive seasonal models. Simulations of the estimated errorcorrection models yield optimal monetary policy paths for achieving inflation targets and demonstrate the empirical significance of seasonality and monetary policy in inflation forecasting.
410  0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2006/175
606   $aInflation (Finance)$xForecasting
606   $aMonetary policy
606   $aForeign Exchange$2imf
606   $aInflation$2imf
606   $aMacroeconomics$2imf
606   $aForecasting$2imf
606   $aPrice Level$2imf
606   $aDeflation$2imf
606   $aForecasting and Other Model Applications$2imf
606   $aCurrency$2imf
606   $aForeign exchange$2imf
606   $aEconomic Forecasting$2imf
606   $aConsumer prices$2imf
606   $aExchange rates$2imf
606   $aConsumer price indexes$2imf
606   $aEconomic forecasting$2imf
606   $aPrices$2imf
606   $aPrice indexes$2imf
607   $aKyrgyz Republic$2imf
615  0$aInflation (Finance)$xForecasting.
615  0$aMonetary policy.
615  7$aForeign Exchange
615  7$aInflation
615  7$aMacroeconomics
615  7$aForecasting
615  7$aPrice Level
615  7$aDeflation
615  7$aForecasting and Other Model Applications
615  7$aCurrency
615  7$aForeign exchange
615  7$aEconomic Forecasting
615  7$aConsumer prices
615  7$aExchange rates
615  7$aConsumer price indexes
615  7$aEconomic forecasting
615  7$aPrices
615  7$aPrice indexes
700   $aKumah$b Francis$01570946
801  0$bDcWaIMF
906   $aBOOK
912   $a9910788518403321
996   $aThe Role of Seasonality and Monetary Policy in Inflation Forecasting$93844934
997   $aUNINA