LEADER 04962oam 22010334 450 001 9910788403203321 005 20230721033334.0 010 $a1-4623-2557-2 010 $a1-4527-5719-4 010 $a1-283-51495-8 010 $a9786613827401 010 $a1-4519-1022-3 035 $a(CKB)3360000000443668 035 $a(EBL)1608469 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000948699 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11602671 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000948699 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10950171 035 $a(PQKB)11651066 035 $a(OCoLC)535146981 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1608469 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2007005 035 $a(EXLCZ)993360000000443668 100 $a20020129d2007 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aYemen : $eExchange Rate Policy in the Face of Dwindling Oil Exports /$fTodd Schneider, Nabil Ben Ltaifa, Faisal Ahmed, Saade Chami 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2007. 215 $a1 online resource (24 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $a"January 2007." 311 $a1-4518-6569-4 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 21-22). 327 $aContents; I. Introduction; II. Background and Macroeconomic Outlook; Figures; 1. Exchange Rate and Inflation Developments, January 1998-June 2006; III. Estimating the Equilibrium Exchange Rate; 2. Yemen and GCC Countries, Real Effective Exchange Rates, January 1995-June 2006; IV. Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Yemen; A. Data and variables; 3. Real Effective Exchange Rate and its Key Determinants; B. Methodology; C. Econometric Results; Tables; 1. Selected Results of the VEC; D. Equilibrium (long-run) Relationship; E. Impact of Declining Oil Production on the REER 327 $aF. Impact on the Nominal Exchange Rate: An Illustrative ExerciseV. Exchange Rate Regime Options; 4. Yemeni Rial-Daily Exchange Rate Versus U.S. Dollar, January-August 2006; VI. Conclusions; Appendix; 1. Variables; References 330 3 $aThis paper investigates the likely implications of declining oil production on Yemen's equilibrium exchange rate, and discusses policy options to ensure a smooth transition to a nonoil economy. The empirical results suggest that, as oil production and foreign exchange earnings fall, the Yemeni rial will have to adjust downward in real effective terms to keep pace with the equilibrium exchange rate. In light of strong pass-through from exchange rate depreciation to domestic inflation, this could entail a substantial depreciation in nominal terms. Given the nature of the adjustment, a floating exchange rate regime appears to be the best option, if supported by appropriate macroeconomic policies. However, given public fixation on a exchange rate stability, a softly managed float would be a better option for Yemen whereby the central bank may have to lead the market toward the equilibrium exchange rate. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2007/005 606 $aForeign exchange rates$zYemen (Republic) 606 $aPetroleum industry and trade$zYemen (Republic) 606 $aExports$zYemen (Republic) 606 $aForeign Exchange$2imf 606 $aIndustries: Energy$2imf 606 $aMonetary Policy$2imf 606 $aCentral Banks and Their Policies$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics: Production$2imf 606 $aCurrency$2imf 606 $aForeign exchange$2imf 606 $aPetroleum, oil & gas industries$2imf 606 $aReal exchange rates$2imf 606 $aExchange rates$2imf 606 $aReal effective exchange rates$2imf 606 $aOil production$2imf 606 $aExchange rate arrangements$2imf 606 $aProduction$2imf 606 $aPetroleum industry and trade$2imf 607 $aYemen, Republic of$2imf 615 0$aForeign exchange rates 615 0$aPetroleum industry and trade 615 0$aExports 615 7$aForeign Exchange 615 7$aIndustries: Energy 615 7$aMonetary Policy 615 7$aCentral Banks and Their Policies 615 7$aMacroeconomics: Production 615 7$aCurrency 615 7$aForeign exchange 615 7$aPetroleum, oil & gas industries 615 7$aReal exchange rates 615 7$aExchange rates 615 7$aReal effective exchange rates 615 7$aOil production 615 7$aExchange rate arrangements 615 7$aProduction 615 7$aPetroleum industry and trade 676 $a339.4 676 $a339.43 700 $aSchneider$b Todd$01574009 701 $aBen Ltaifa$b Nabil$01574010 701 $aAhmed$b Faisal$01574011 701 $aChami$b Saade$01574012 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund.$bMiddle East and Central Asia Dept. 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910788403203321 996 $aYemen$93850003 997 $aUNINA