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100   $a20020129d2006      uf             0
101 0 $aeng
135   $aur|n|---|||||
181   $ctxt
182   $cc
183   $acr
200 13$aAn Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts /$fAllan Timmermann
210  1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2006.
215   $a1 online resource (108 p.)
225 1 $aIMF Working Papers
300   $a"March 2006."
311   $a1-4518-6319-5 
320   $aIncludes bibliographical references.
327   $a""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY""; ""II. DESCRIPTION OF WEO DATASET""; ""III. PROPERTIES OF OPTIMAL FORECASTS""; ""IV. EMPIRICAL RESULTS""; ""V. ANALYSIS OF STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE""; ""VI. CAN THE WEO FORECAST ERRORS BE PREDICTED?""; ""VII. DIRECTIONAL ACCURACY""; ""VIII. REVISIONS FROM BOARD TO PUBLISHED FORECASTS""; ""IX. RECENT PERFORMANCE OF WEO FORECASTS""; ""X. LONG-RUN FORECASTING PERFORMANCE FOR G-7 ECONOMIES""; ""XI. COMPARISON OF WEO AND CONSENSUS FORECASTS""; ""XII. FORECAST COMBINATIONS""; ""XIII. RECOMMENDATIONS""; ""XIV. CONCLUSION""; ""References""
330 3 $aThe World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forecasts. This paper conducts a series of statistical tests to evaluate the quality of the WEO forecasts for a very large cross section of countries, with particular emphasis on the recent recession and recovery. It assesses whether forecasts were unbiased and informationally efficient, and characterizes the process whereby WEO forecasts get revised as the time to the point of the forecast draws closer. Finally, the paper assess whether forecasts can be improved by combining WEO forecasts with the Consensus forecasts. The results suggest that the performance of the WEO forecasts is similar to that of the Consensus forecasts. While WEO forecasts for many variables in many countries meet basic quality standards in some, if not all, dimensions, the paper raises a number of concerns with current forecasting performance.
410  0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2006/059
606   $aEconomic development
606   $aEconomic forecasting$xEvaluation
606   $aInternational economic relations
606   $aExports and Imports$2imf
606   $aInflation$2imf
606   $aMacroeconomics$2imf
606   $aForecasting$2imf
606   $aCurrent Account Adjustment$2imf
606   $aShort-term Capital Movements$2imf
606   $aForecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications$2imf
606   $aPrice Level$2imf
606   $aDeflation$2imf
606   $aForecasting and Other Model Applications$2imf
606   $aInternational economics$2imf
606   $aEconomic Forecasting$2imf
606   $aCurrent account balance$2imf
606   $aCurrent account$2imf
606   $aGDP forecasting$2imf
606   $aEconomic forecasting$2imf
606   $aBalance of payments$2imf
606   $aNational income$2imf
606   $aPrices$2imf
607   $aUnited States$2imf
615  0$aEconomic development.
615  0$aEconomic forecasting$xEvaluation.
615  0$aInternational economic relations.
615  7$aExports and Imports
615  7$aInflation
615  7$aMacroeconomics
615  7$aForecasting
615  7$aCurrent Account Adjustment
615  7$aShort-term Capital Movements
615  7$aForecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
615  7$aPrice Level
615  7$aDeflation
615  7$aForecasting and Other Model Applications
615  7$aInternational economics
615  7$aEconomic Forecasting
615  7$aCurrent account balance
615  7$aCurrent account
615  7$aGDP forecasting
615  7$aEconomic forecasting
615  7$aBalance of payments
615  7$aNational income
615  7$aPrices
700   $aTimmermann$b Allan$01462123
712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund.$bResearch Dept.
801  0$bDcWaIMF
906   $aBOOK
912   $a9910788403003321
996   $aAn Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts$93850001
997   $aUNINA