LEADER 05299oam 22011054 450 001 9910788346803321 005 20230721045616.0 010 $a1-4623-9311-X 010 $a1-4527-7328-9 010 $a1-4518-7179-1 010 $a1-282-84254-4 010 $a9786612842542 035 $a(CKB)3170000000055207 035 $a(EBL)1608187 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000940757 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11492017 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940757 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10955942 035 $a(PQKB)11670850 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1608187 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC3013326 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1608187 035 $a(OCoLC)870245358 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2009032 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055207 100 $a20020129d2009 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aEvaluating Historical CGER Assessments : $eHow Well Have They Predicted Subsequent Exchange Rate Movements? /$fJungjin Lee, Abdul Abiad, Prakash Kannan 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2009. 215 $a1 online resource (29 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4519-1615-9 327 $aContents; I. Introduction; Box; 1. An Overview of CGER Exchange Rate Assessment Methodologies; II. Evaluating Misalignment Assessments for Advanced Economies; A. Mean Prediction Error; Figures; 1. Mean Prediction Error; B. Panel Regressions; Tables; 1. Panel Regression Results using Midpoint of CGER Assessment; 2. Panel Regression Results using MB Misalignment Estimate; C. Individual Country Diagnostics; 3. Evaluation Diagnostics using MB Estimates; 2. Scatterplots of Realized vs. Predicted Changes in REER; D. Evaluating Current Account Movements; 4. Panel Regression Results using CA Norm 327 $aIII. Cross-Section Analysis of the Fall 2006 CGER Estimates5. Country Coverage of the Expanded CGER Exercise.; 3. Undconditional Scatterplots, 27 CGER Countries; 6. Regression Results using Midpoint of CGER Assessment; 4. Conditional Scatterplots using Midpoint of CGER Assessment; 7. Regression Results using Individual CGER Methodologies; IV. Conclusion; 8. Regression Results using Midpoint of CGER Assessment, Different Horizons.......; References; Appendices; 1. Pooled Regression Results; 2. Description of Diagnostic Statistics.; 3. Data Appendix 330 3 $aThe IMF's Consultative Group on Exchange Rate issues (CGER) has been conducting exchange rate assessments as part of the surveillance process since 1997. This paper evaluates CGER assessments from 1997 to 2006, by comparing these to subsequent movements in real effective exchange rates (REER). We find that CGER's estimated misalignments have predictive power over future REER movements, especially over longer horizons and after changes in fundamentals are accounted for. But while CGER misalignments frequently predict the direction of currency movements correctly, misalignments have tended to be persistent, resulting in systematic errors-overprediction for undervalued currencies and underprediction for overvalued currencies. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2009/032 606 $aForeign exchange rates -- Mathematical models 606 $aForeign exchange 606 $aMonetary policy -- Mathematical models 606 $aFinance$2HILCC 606 $aBusiness & Economics$2HILCC 606 $aInternational Finance$2HILCC 606 $aForeign Exchange$2imf 606 $aMoney and Monetary Policy$2imf 606 $aMonetary Systems$2imf 606 $aStandards$2imf 606 $aRegimes$2imf 606 $aGovernment and the Monetary System$2imf 606 $aPayment Systems$2imf 606 $aCurrency$2imf 606 $aForeign exchange$2imf 606 $aMonetary economics$2imf 606 $aReal exchange rates$2imf 606 $aExchange rates$2imf 606 $aReal effective exchange rates$2imf 606 $aCurrencies$2imf 606 $aExchange rate assessments$2imf 606 $aMoney$2imf 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 4$aForeign exchange rates -- Mathematical models. 615 4$aForeign exchange. 615 4$aMonetary policy -- Mathematical models. 615 7$aFinance 615 7$aBusiness & Economics 615 7$aInternational Finance 615 7$aForeign Exchange 615 7$aMoney and Monetary Policy 615 7$aMonetary Systems 615 7$aStandards 615 7$aRegimes 615 7$aGovernment and the Monetary System 615 7$aPayment Systems 615 7$aCurrency 615 7$aForeign exchange 615 7$aMonetary economics 615 7$aReal exchange rates 615 7$aExchange rates 615 7$aReal effective exchange rates 615 7$aCurrencies 615 7$aExchange rate assessments 615 7$aMoney 676 $a339.267 700 $aLee$b Jungjin$01493516 701 $aAbiad$b Abdul$01493465 701 $aKannan$b Prakash$01493479 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910788346803321 996 $aEvaluating Historical CGER Assessments$93716519 997 $aUNINA