LEADER 04540oam 22010334 450 001 9910788340103321 005 20230721045653.0 010 $a1-4623-8100-6 010 $a1-4527-4906-X 010 $a9786612842634 010 $a1-282-84263-3 010 $a1-4518-7189-9 035 $a(CKB)3170000000055212 035 $a(EBL)1608202 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000940089 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11493984 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940089 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10946633 035 $a(PQKB)10493165 035 $a(OCoLC)469135225 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1608202 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2009041 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055212 100 $a20020129d2009 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aCommodity Price Volatility, Cyclical Fluctuations, and Convergence : $eWhat is Ahead for Inflation in Emerging Europe? /$fEdda Zoli 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2009. 215 $a1 online resource (21 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4519-1624-8 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aContents; I. Introduction; Figures; 1. Headline Inflation; II. VAR analysis; 2. Variance Decomposition of Headline Inflation; Tables; 1: Response of Domestic Energy Inflation to International Oil Price Inflation Shocks; 2. Response of Domestic Food Inflation to International Food Price Inflation Shocks; III. Panel Estimation; 3. Response of Core Inflation to Shocks to Domestic Food and Energy Price Inflation; 4. Panel Regression Results; IV. Conclusion: What is Ahead for Inflation in Emerging Europe?; Appendixes; 1. Variable Definition and Data Sources; 2. Other Panel Results; References 330 3 $aThis paper assesses the role of international commodity prices, cyclical fluctuations, and convergence in driving inflation in 18 European emerging economies. Country specific VARs and panel estimates indicate that international commodity price shocks have a significant impact on domestic inflation, but the inflation response is asymmetric for positive and negative shocks. Cyclical fluctuations explain a relative small share of inflation variability, and the inflation response is asymmetric during upturns and downturns. Price convergence is estimated to add nearly 3 percentage points to headline inflation, for the average country whose price level is about 50 percent relative to the EU-15 average. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2009/041 606 $aPrimary commodities$xPrices$zEurope 606 $aInflation (Finance)$zEurope 606 $aInflation$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $a'Panel Data Models$2imf 606 $aSpatio-temporal Models'$2imf 606 $aTime-Series Models$2imf 606 $aDynamic Quantile Regressions$2imf 606 $aDynamic Treatment Effect Models$2imf 606 $aDiffusion Processes$2imf 606 $aState Space Models$2imf 606 $aPrice Level$2imf 606 $aDeflation$2imf 606 $aAgriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aEnergy: Demand and Supply$2imf 606 $aCommodity Markets$2imf 606 $aFood prices$2imf 606 $aCommodity price shocks$2imf 606 $aFuel prices$2imf 606 $aOil prices$2imf 607 $aUkraine$2imf 615 0$aPrimary commodities$xPrices 615 0$aInflation (Finance) 615 7$aInflation 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$a'Panel Data Models 615 7$aSpatio-temporal Models' 615 7$aTime-Series Models 615 7$aDynamic Quantile Regressions 615 7$aDynamic Treatment Effect Models 615 7$aDiffusion Processes 615 7$aState Space Models 615 7$aPrice Level 615 7$aDeflation 615 7$aAgriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aEnergy: Demand and Supply 615 7$aCommodity Markets 615 7$aFood prices 615 7$aCommodity price shocks 615 7$aFuel prices 615 7$aOil prices 676 $a338.278 700 $aZoli$b Edda$01111469 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910788340103321 996 $aCommodity Price Volatility, Cyclical Fluctuations, and Convergence$93716452 997 $aUNINA