LEADER 05697oam 22012134 450 001 9910788338203321 005 20230721045628.0 010 $a1-4623-1642-5 010 $a1-4527-3796-7 010 $a9786612842924 010 $a1-4518-7218-6 010 $a1-282-84292-7 035 $a(CKB)3170000000055232 035 $a(EBL)1608233 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000940139 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11518060 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940139 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10946365 035 $a(PQKB)10406129 035 $a(OCoLC)608485810 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1608233 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2009071 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055232 100 $a20020129d2009 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aECCU Business Cycles : $eImpact of the U.S. /$fYan Sun, Wendell Samuel 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2009. 215 $a1 online resource (25 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4519-1653-1 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aContents; I. Introduction; II. Business Cycles and Spillovers; A. Analysis of Business Cycles in the Caribbean; B. Common Trend and Cycle Analysis; C. Transmission of U.S. Shocks to the Caribbean; III. Econometric Methodology and Data; A. The Common Trends and Common Cycles Approach; B. The VAR Analysis; C. The Data; IV. Empirical Results; Tables; 1. Summary Statistics of Real GDP Growth; A. Caribbean Common Trends and Common Cycles; 2. VAR Lag Order Selection; 3. Tests for the Number of Cointegrating Vectors; 4. Growth Elasticities in the Caribbean; B. Spillovers from the U.S. to the ECCU 327 $a5. Diagnostics of Growth Elasticity ModelsV. Conclusions and Policy Implications; Figures; 1. Three Common Cycles; 2. Four Common Trends; 3. Caribbean Countries: Cyclical Components of Real GDP; 4. Caribbean Countries: Trend Components of Real GDP; 5. ECCU: Responses to One Percent U.S. Growth Shock; 6. ECCU: Country Responses to One Percent U.S. Growth Shock; 7. Antigua and Barbuda: Responses to One Percent U.S. Growth Shock; References 330 3 $aWith a fixed peg to the U.S. dollar for more than three decades, the tourism-dependent Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) countries share a close economic relationship with the U.S. This paper analyzes the impact of the United States on ECCU business cycles and identifies possible transmission channels. Using two different approaches (the common trends and common cycles approach of Vahid and Engle (1993) and the standard VAR analysis), it finds that the ECCU economies are very sensitive to both temporary and permanent movements in the U.S. economy and that such linkages have strengthened over time. There is, however, less clear-cut evidence on the transmission channels. United States monetary policy does not appear to be an important channel of influence, while tourism is important for only one ECCU country. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2009/071 606 $aBusiness cycles$zUnited States 606 $aEconomics$zUnited States 606 $aEconometrics$2imf 606 $aExports and Imports$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aBusiness Fluctuations$2imf 606 $aCycles$2imf 606 $aEconomic Growth of Open Economies$2imf 606 $aPrices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)$2imf 606 $aTime-Series Models$2imf 606 $aDynamic Quantile Regressions$2imf 606 $aDynamic Treatment Effect Models$2imf 606 $aDiffusion Processes$2imf 606 $aExternalities$2imf 606 $aCommodity Markets$2imf 606 $aRemittances$2imf 606 $aEconomic growth$2imf 606 $aEconometrics & economic statistics$2imf 606 $aInternational economics$2imf 606 $aBusiness cycles$2imf 606 $aVector autoregression$2imf 606 $aSpillovers$2imf 606 $aCommodity prices$2imf 606 $aEconometric analysis$2imf 606 $aFinancial sector policy and analysis$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aBalance of payments$2imf 606 $aInternational finance$2imf 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 0$aBusiness cycles 615 0$aEconomics 615 7$aEconometrics 615 7$aExports and Imports 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aBusiness Fluctuations 615 7$aCycles 615 7$aEconomic Growth of Open Economies 615 7$aPrices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) 615 7$aTime-Series Models 615 7$aDynamic Quantile Regressions 615 7$aDynamic Treatment Effect Models 615 7$aDiffusion Processes 615 7$aExternalities 615 7$aCommodity Markets 615 7$aRemittances 615 7$aEconomic growth 615 7$aEconometrics & economic statistics 615 7$aInternational economics 615 7$aBusiness cycles 615 7$aVector autoregression 615 7$aSpillovers 615 7$aCommodity prices 615 7$aEconometric analysis 615 7$aFinancial sector policy and analysis 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aBalance of payments 615 7$aInternational finance 700 $aSun$b Yan$0690256 701 $aSamuel$b Wendell$01472704 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910788338203321 996 $aECCU Business Cycles$93685587 997 $aUNINA