LEADER 05365oam 22010934 450 001 9910788337203321 005 20230721045626.0 010 $a1-4623-2248-4 010 $a1-4527-4301-0 010 $a9786612842948 010 $a1-282-84294-3 010 $a1-4518-7220-8 035 $a(CKB)3170000000055242 035 $a(EBL)1608243 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000939969 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11518975 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000939969 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10938239 035 $a(PQKB)11717970 035 $a(OCoLC)608491617 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1608243 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2009073 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055242 100 $a20020129d2009 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 12$aA Coincident Indicator of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Business Cycle /$fAbdullah Al-Hassan 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2009. 215 $a1 online resource (36 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4519-1655-8 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aContents; I. Introduction; II. Methodology; A. Generalized Dynamic Factor Model; B. Estimating Common Components by a One-Sided Filter; Figures; 1. Average Dynamic Eigenvalues Over Cross-Sectional Units; 2. Percentage of Variance Explained; III. Building a GCC Area Database; IV. A Coincident Indicator for the GCC Business Cycle; A. Definition of the Coincident Indicator Properties; 3. Spectral Density Functions of All Eigenvalues; 4. Average of Spectral Density Functions; B. Properties of the Coincident Indicator; C. The Construction of a Coincident Indicator 327 $a5. The GCC Coincident Indicator and the GCC Area GDP Growth Rate6. The GCC Coincident Indicator and the Common Component of National GDP; 7. The GCC Coincident Indicator and the Common Component of National GDP; V. Degree of Commonality and Cyclical Behavior of the Variables; A. Degree of Commonality; B. Business Cycle: Stylized Facts; Tables; 1. The Direction and Timing of Variables Against the Coincident Indicator; VI. Observed Economic Variables and Latent Factors; VII. Conclusion; 2. Testing the Observed Macroeconomic Data Against the Latent Factors; Appendix; I: Data Set; Appendix Tables 327 $a1: Data, Degree of Commonality, and Cyclical BehaviorReferences 330 3 $aThis paper constructs a coincident indicator for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) area business cycle. The resulting coincident indicator provides a reliable measure of the GCC business cycle; over the last decade, the GCC coincident index and the real GDP growth have moved closely together. Since the indicator is constructed using a small number of common factors, the strong correlation between the indicator and real GDP growth points to a high degree of commonality across GCC economies. The timing and direction of movements in macroeconomic variables are characterized with respect to the coincident indicator. Finally, to obtain a meaningful economic interpretation of the latent factors, their behavior is compared to the observed economic variables. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2009/073 606 $aBusiness cycles 606 $aEconometrics$2imf 606 $aForeign Exchange$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aPrices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)$2imf 606 $aPrice Level$2imf 606 $aInflation$2imf 606 $aDeflation$2imf 606 $aClassification Methods$2imf 606 $aCluster Analysis$2imf 606 $aPrincipal Components$2imf 606 $aFactor Models$2imf 606 $aEconomic growth$2imf 606 $aEconometrics & economic statistics$2imf 606 $aCurrency$2imf 606 $aForeign exchange$2imf 606 $aBusiness cycles$2imf 606 $aCyclical indicators$2imf 606 $aConsumer prices$2imf 606 $aFactor models$2imf 606 $aNominal effective exchange rate$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aEconometric models$2imf 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 0$aBusiness cycles. 615 7$aEconometrics 615 7$aForeign Exchange 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aPrices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) 615 7$aPrice Level 615 7$aInflation 615 7$aDeflation 615 7$aClassification Methods 615 7$aCluster Analysis 615 7$aPrincipal Components 615 7$aFactor Models 615 7$aEconomic growth 615 7$aEconometrics & economic statistics 615 7$aCurrency 615 7$aForeign exchange 615 7$aBusiness cycles 615 7$aCyclical indicators 615 7$aConsumer prices 615 7$aFactor models 615 7$aNominal effective exchange rate 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aEconometric models 700 $aAl-Hassan$b Abdullah$01472712 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910788337203321 996 $aA Coincident Indicator of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Business Cycle$93685577 997 $aUNINA