LEADER 05156oam 22010574 450 001 9910788336303321 005 20230721045706.0 010 $a1-4623-3357-5 010 $a1-4527-5410-1 010 $a1-4518-7232-1 010 $a1-282-84305-2 010 $a9786612843051 035 $a(CKB)3170000000055253 035 $a(EBL)1608268 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000940035 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11600614 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940035 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10939165 035 $a(PQKB)10828136 035 $a(OCoLC)503178964 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1608268 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2009085 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055253 100 $a20020129d2009 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aAdding Latin America to the Global Projection Model 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2009. 215 $a1 online resource (50 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4519-1667-1 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aContents; I. Introduction; II. Benchmark Model; A. Background; B. The Specification of the Model; B.1 Observable variables and data definitions; B.2 Stochastic processes and model definitions; B.3 Behavioral equations; B.4 Cross correlations of disturbances; III. Extending the Model to Include Financial-Real Linkages; A. Background; B. Model Specification Incorporating the US Bank Lending Tightening Variable; IV. Confronting the Model with the Data; A. Bayesian Estimation; B. Results; B.1 Estimates of output gap; B.2 Estimates of coefficients 327 $aB.3 Estimates of standard deviation of structural shocks and cross correlationsB.4 RMSEs; B.5 Impulse response functions; B.6 Historical variance decomposition; V. Concluding Remarks; References; Appendix Tables; 1. GPM Data Definitions; 2. Trade Matrix (Average 2001-2007, in percent); Figures; 1. Output Gap in LA5; Text Tables; 1. Results from Posterior Maximization; 2. Estimated Parameters in the Output Gap Equation; 3. Estimated Parameters in the Inflation Equation; 4. Estimated Parameters in the Monetary Policy Rule 327 $a2. Results from Posterior Parameters (Standard Deviation of Structural Shocks)3. Results from Posterior Parameters (Correlation of Structural Shocks); 4. Root Mean Squared Errors; 5. Domestic Demand Shock; 6. Domestic Price Shock; 7. Demand Shock in the US; 8. BLT Shock in the US; 9. Historical Decomposition of Inflation 2004-08 330 3 $aThis is the fourth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we add Latin American economies to a previously estimated small quarterly projection model of the US, Euro Area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2009/085 606 $aGlobalization$xEconomic aspects$zLatin America 606 $aEconometrics 606 $aBanks and Banking$2imf 606 $aForeign Exchange$2imf 606 $aInflation$2imf 606 $aProduction and Operations Management$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics: Production$2imf 606 $aPrice Level$2imf 606 $aDeflation$2imf 606 $aInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aCurrency$2imf 606 $aForeign exchange$2imf 606 $aFinance$2imf 606 $aOutput gap$2imf 606 $aReal exchange rates$2imf 606 $aReal interest rates$2imf 606 $aExchange rates$2imf 606 $aProduction$2imf 606 $aEconomic theory$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aInterest rates$2imf 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 0$aGlobalization$xEconomic aspects 615 0$aEconometrics. 615 7$aBanks and Banking 615 7$aForeign Exchange 615 7$aInflation 615 7$aProduction and Operations Management 615 7$aMacroeconomics: Production 615 7$aPrice Level 615 7$aDeflation 615 7$aInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aCurrency 615 7$aForeign exchange 615 7$aFinance 615 7$aOutput gap 615 7$aReal exchange rates 615 7$aReal interest rates 615 7$aExchange rates 615 7$aProduction 615 7$aEconomic theory 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aInterest rates 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910788336303321 996 $aAdding Latin America to the Global Projection Model$93685568 997 $aUNINA