LEADER 05800oam 22010934 450 001 9910788332703321 005 20230721045712.0 010 $a1-4623-4063-6 010 $a1-4527-3897-1 010 $a1-4518-7279-8 010 $a9786612843464 010 $a1-282-84346-X 035 $a(CKB)3170000000055288 035 $a(EBL)1608340 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000940864 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11598333 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940864 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10956083 035 $a(PQKB)10242410 035 $a(OCoLC)649707822 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1608340 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2009132 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055288 100 $a20020129d2009 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aForecasting Inflation in Sudan /$fKenji Moriyama, Abdul Naseer 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2009. 215 $a1 online resource (27 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4519-1708-2 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aContents; I. Introduction; II. Recent Developments; Figures; 1. Average and Standard Deviation of Inflation, 2000-08; 2. Monthly Inflation (12-Month) in Sudan, January 2000-October 2008; III. Methodology; A. Which Inflation Should Be Forecasted?; 3. Overall Inflation, 2000-08; B. Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) Model; 4. Cumulative Spectral Distribution of Inflation, 2000-08; C. Leading Indicators; 5. Currency Holding and Islamic Dummies, 2005-08; 6. Candidates of Leading Indicators; IV. Results; A. ARMA Model; 7. Actual and Projected Inflation Based on the Estimated ARMA Models 327 $aB. Granger Causality Tests for Leading IndicatorsV. Implications-What Can be said from the Estimated Model and the Tests?; A. Can the Estimated Model Explain the Surge of Inflation in 2007 and 2008?; 8. Forecasted Inflation, July 2007-December 2008; 9. Forecast Errors of the Model and Bread Contribution to Inflation, July 2007-October 2008; B. Forecasting Inflation for 2009 and 2010; 10. Forecasted Inflation; 11. Inflation Forecast Based on ARMA (4,5), July 2008-December 2010; C. Leading Indicators (Private Sector Credit Growth and Wheat Price Inflation) 327 $a12. Oil Price Projections, World Economic Outlook, 2000-1013. Wheat Price Projections, World Economic Outlook, 2000-10; VI. Conclusions; Tables; 1. Estimated ARMA Model of Inflation; 2. Main Statistics of Various ARMA Models, 2000-08; 3. Granger Causality Tests Between Inflation and Leading Indicators, 2000-08; Appendices; I. The Schwartz Information Criterion; II. Estimated ARMA Model for main Monetary Aggregates; Appendix Tables; A1. Estimated ARMA Model of Broad money, 2000-08; References 330 3 $aThis paper forecasts inflation in Sudan following two methodologies: the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model and by looking at the leading indicators of inflation. The estimated ARMA model remarkably tracks the actual inflation during the sample period. The Granger causality test suggests that private sector credit and world wheat prices are the leading indicators explaining inflation in Sudan. Inflation forecasts based on both approaches suggest that inflationary pressures for 2009 and 2010 will be modest and that inflation will remain in single-digits, assuming that prudent macroeconomic policies are maintained. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2009/132 606 $aInflation (Finance)$zSudan 606 $aEconomic forecasting$zSudan 606 $aInflation$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aMoney and Monetary Policy$2imf 606 $aForecasting$2imf 606 $aPrice Level$2imf 606 $aDeflation$2imf 606 $aForecasting and Other Model Applications$2imf 606 $aAgriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aPrices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)$2imf 606 $aMonetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General$2imf 606 $aEconomic Forecasting$2imf 606 $aEconomic growth$2imf 606 $aMonetary economics$2imf 606 $aEconomic forecasting$2imf 606 $aAgricultural prices$2imf 606 $aCyclical indicators$2imf 606 $aMonetary base$2imf 606 $aBusiness cycles$2imf 606 $aMoney supply$2imf 607 $aSudan$2imf 615 0$aInflation (Finance) 615 0$aEconomic forecasting 615 7$aInflation 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aMoney and Monetary Policy 615 7$aForecasting 615 7$aPrice Level 615 7$aDeflation 615 7$aForecasting and Other Model Applications 615 7$aAgriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aPrices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) 615 7$aMonetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General 615 7$aEconomic Forecasting 615 7$aEconomic growth 615 7$aMonetary economics 615 7$aEconomic forecasting 615 7$aAgricultural prices 615 7$aCyclical indicators 615 7$aMonetary base 615 7$aBusiness cycles 615 7$aMoney supply 700 $aMoriyama$b Kenji$01472668 701 $aNaseer$b Abdul$01472669 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund. 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910788332703321 996 $aForecasting Inflation in Sudan$93685532 997 $aUNINA