LEADER 05205oam 22010934 450 001 9910788236903321 005 20230721045612.0 010 $a1-4623-8001-8 010 $a1-4527-8137-0 010 $a1-4518-7002-7 010 $a1-282-84095-9 010 $a9786612840951 035 $a(CKB)3170000000055038 035 $a(EBL)1607890 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000943268 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11523888 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000943268 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10977403 035 $a(PQKB)11311479 035 $a(OCoLC)568151216 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1607890 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2008144 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055038 100 $a20020129d2008 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aSudden Stops and Optimal Self-Insurance /$fJun Kim 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2008. 215 $a1 online resource (36 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $a"June 2008." 311 $a1-4519-1455-5 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 34). 327 $aContents; I. Introduction; II. The Model; III. Model Calibration; IV. Concluding Remarks; Text Tables; 1. Actual and Calibrated Optimal Reserves for Selected EM Countries: 1993-2006; 2. Implied Probability of a Sudden Stop for Selected EM Countries: 1994-2007; 3. IMF Arrangements for Selected EM Countries: 1993-2006; Text Figures; 1. Actual and Calibrated Optimal Reserves for Selected EM Countries: 1993-; A. Latin America; B. Asia, Russia and Turkey; 2. Implied Probability of a Sudden Stop for Selected EM Countries: 1994-; A. Latin America; B. Asia, Russia and Turkey 327 $a3. Actual ? and Default Threshold ?* for Selected EM Countries: 1993-A. Latin America; B. Asia, Russia and Turkey; 4. Sources of Reserve Accumulation for Selected EM Countries: 1993-; A. Latin America; B. Asia, Russia and Turkey; Appendix: Creditor Coordination Problem; References 330 3 $aThis paper presents a simple model of optimal reserves that can be easily calibrated to compute optimal reserves as well as the implied probability of a sudden stop for given reserves. The model builds upon the global games framework of Morris and Shin to establish a unique relationship between the probability of a sudden stop and the level of reserves. The calibration results for 15 selected emerging market countries in Latin America, Asia and other regions over the sample period of 1993-2006 suggest that the risk of sudden stops may have declined to a low level in recent years in all countries in the sample. The results also suggest that Asia and Russia may have been significantly over insured since early 2000s with estimated excess reserves of US$ 1 trillion in total at end-2006. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2008/144 606 $aBank reserves$zDeveloping countries$xEconometric models 606 $aFinancial crises$zDeveloping countries$xEconometric models 606 $aBanks and Banking$2imf 606 $aExports and Imports$2imf 606 $aFinance: General$2imf 606 $aInternational Investment$2imf 606 $aLong-term Capital Movements$2imf 606 $aCurrent Account Adjustment$2imf 606 $aShort-term Capital Movements$2imf 606 $aGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)$2imf 606 $aMonetary Policy$2imf 606 $aInternational economics$2imf 606 $aFinance$2imf 606 $aBanking$2imf 606 $aSudden stops$2imf 606 $aCapital account crisis$2imf 606 $aCurrent account$2imf 606 $aEmerging and frontier financial markets$2imf 606 $aReserves accumulation$2imf 606 $aCapital movements$2imf 606 $aBalance of payments$2imf 606 $aFinancial services industry$2imf 606 $aForeign exchange reserves$2imf 607 $aTurkey$2imf 615 0$aBank reserves$xEconometric models. 615 0$aFinancial crises$xEconometric models. 615 7$aBanks and Banking 615 7$aExports and Imports 615 7$aFinance: General 615 7$aInternational Investment 615 7$aLong-term Capital Movements 615 7$aCurrent Account Adjustment 615 7$aShort-term Capital Movements 615 7$aGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) 615 7$aMonetary Policy 615 7$aInternational economics 615 7$aFinance 615 7$aBanking 615 7$aSudden stops 615 7$aCapital account crisis 615 7$aCurrent account 615 7$aEmerging and frontier financial markets 615 7$aReserves accumulation 615 7$aCapital movements 615 7$aBalance of payments 615 7$aFinancial services industry 615 7$aForeign exchange reserves 700 $aKim$b Jun$01485150 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund.$bResearch Dept. 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910788236903321 996 $aSudden Stops and Optimal Self-Insurance$93704198 997 $aUNINA