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101 0 $aeng
135   $aur|n|---|||||
181   $ctxt
182   $cc
183   $acr
200 10$aMuch Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdown on Thai Growth /$fShekhar Aiyar, Ivan Tchakarov
210  1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2008.
215   $a1 online resource (20 p.)
225 1 $aIMF Working Papers
225  0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/08/140
300   $aDescription based upon print version of record.
311   $a1-4519-1451-2 
320   $aIncludes bibliographical references.
327   $aContents; I. Introduction; II. The Model; III. Results; IV. Confidence Intervals; V. Conclusion; Figures; 1. Data Used for Estimation; 2. Responses to a 1 Percent Slowdown in U.S. Growth; 3. Robustness--Confidence Intervals of GDP Growth Responses; Table; 1. Model Parameter Estimation Results; References
330 3 $aExternal demand was the main driver of growth in Thailand in 2006 and 2007. However, WEO projections indicate moderating foreign demand in 2008, with U.S. growth being revised downwards to reflect the turmoil in housing and credit markets, and high oil prices. While the share of Thai exports to the US has fallen in recent years, the US remains Thailand's largest export destination. We use a small structural model and Bayesian estimation to assess the possible impact of a U.S. slowdown on Thai growth. We find that a 1 percent slowdown in U.S. growth in 2008-relative to the baseline forecast-could have an upper-bound impact on Thai GDP growth of 0.9 percentage points.
410  0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2008/140
606   $aExports$zThailand$xEconometric models
606   $aEconomic development$zThailand$xEconometric models
606   $aBanks and Banking$2imf
606   $aForeign Exchange$2imf
606   $aInflation$2imf
606   $aProduction and Operations Management$2imf
606   $aMacroeconomics: Production$2imf
606   $aPrice Level$2imf
606   $aDeflation$2imf
606   $aInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects$2imf
606   $aMacroeconomics$2imf
606   $aCurrency$2imf
606   $aForeign exchange$2imf
606   $aFinance$2imf
606   $aOutput gap$2imf
606   $aExchange rates$2imf
606   $aReal exchange rates$2imf
606   $aReal interest rates$2imf
606   $aProduction$2imf
606   $aEconomic theory$2imf
606   $aPrices$2imf
606   $aInterest rates$2imf
607   $aThailand$xForeign economic relations$zUnited States$xEconometric models
607   $aUnited States$2imf
615  0$aExports$xEconometric models.
615  0$aEconomic development$xEconometric models.
615  7$aBanks and Banking
615  7$aForeign Exchange
615  7$aInflation
615  7$aProduction and Operations Management
615  7$aMacroeconomics: Production
615  7$aPrice Level
615  7$aDeflation
615  7$aInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
615  7$aMacroeconomics
615  7$aCurrency
615  7$aForeign exchange
615  7$aFinance
615  7$aOutput gap
615  7$aExchange rates
615  7$aReal exchange rates
615  7$aReal interest rates
615  7$aProduction
615  7$aEconomic theory
615  7$aPrices
615  7$aInterest rates
676   $a382.6
700   $aAiyar$b Shekhar$01095044
701   $aTchakarov$b Ivan$01485200
801  0$bDcWaIMF
906   $aBOOK
912   $a9910788236703321
996   $aMuch Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdown on Thai Growth$93704196
997   $aUNINA