LEADER 05532oam 22012134 450 001 9910788233803321 005 20230721045634.0 010 $a1-4623-1341-8 010 $a1-4527-4908-6 010 $a1-4518-7024-8 010 $a1-282-84117-3 010 $a9786612841170 035 $a(CKB)3170000000055071 035 $a(EBL)1607942 035 $a(SSID)ssj0001477988 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11892589 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001477988 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)11453221 035 $a(PQKB)10440308 035 $a(OCoLC)761928073 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1607942 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2008166 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055071 100 $a20020129d2008 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 14$aThe Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation /$fEmil Stavrev, Helge Berger 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2008. 215 $a1 online resource (31 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 225 0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/08/166 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4519-1477-6 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aContents; I. Introduction; II. Related Literature; III. Models of Inflation; A. DSGE Models; B. Partial Equilibrium Models; C. Empirical Models; IV. Empirical Methods and Data; A. Estimation Techniques; B. Prior Distribution of Parameters for the Bayesian Estimates; C. Forecasting and the Information Content of Money; D. Data; V. Results; A. The Marginal Contribution of Money; Figures; 1. Forecast Performance of DSGE Models; 2. Forecast Performance of Empirical Models; 3. Forecast Performance of P* and Phillips Curve Models; B. Comparison of Money-Based Models; C. Comparison Across All Models 327 $aTables1. Out-of-Sample Forecasting Performance of Models; VI. Conclusions; References; Appendices; I. Empirical Specifications; II. Bayesian Priors 330 3 $aThis paper contributes to the debate on the role of money in monetary policy by analyzing the information content of money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of structural and empirical models in a consistent framework using Bayesian and other estimation techniques. We find that money contains relevant information for inflation in some model classes. Money-based New Keynesian DSGE models and VARs incorporating money perform better than their cashless counterparts. But there are also indications that the contribution of money has its limits. The marginal contribution of money to forecasting accuracy is often small, money adds little to dynamic factor models, and it worsens forecasting accuracy of partial equilibrium models. Finally, non-monetary models dominate monetary models in an all-out horserace. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2008/166 606 $aMonetary policy$xEconometric models 606 $aMoney$xEconometric models 606 $aInflation (Finance)$xForecasting$xEconometric models 606 $aEconometrics$2imf 606 $aInflation$2imf 606 $aMoney and Monetary Policy$2imf 606 $aForecasting$2imf 606 $aForecasting and Other Model Applications$2imf 606 $aPrice Level$2imf 606 $aDeflation$2imf 606 $aComputable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models$2imf 606 $aClassification Methods$2imf 606 $aCluster Analysis$2imf 606 $aPrincipal Components$2imf 606 $aFactor Models$2imf 606 $aDemand for Money$2imf 606 $aEconomic Forecasting$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aEconometrics & economic statistics$2imf 606 $aMonetary economics$2imf 606 $aEconomic forecasting$2imf 606 $aDynamic stochastic general equilibrium models$2imf 606 $aFactor models$2imf 606 $aDemand for money$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aEconometric models$2imf 606 $aMoney$2imf 607 $aNew Zealand$2imf 615 0$aMonetary policy$xEconometric models. 615 0$aMoney$xEconometric models. 615 0$aInflation (Finance)$xForecasting$xEconometric models. 615 7$aEconometrics 615 7$aInflation 615 7$aMoney and Monetary Policy 615 7$aForecasting 615 7$aForecasting and Other Model Applications 615 7$aPrice Level 615 7$aDeflation 615 7$aComputable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models 615 7$aClassification Methods 615 7$aCluster Analysis 615 7$aPrincipal Components 615 7$aFactor Models 615 7$aDemand for Money 615 7$aEconomic Forecasting 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aEconometrics & economic statistics 615 7$aMonetary economics 615 7$aEconomic forecasting 615 7$aDynamic stochastic general equilibrium models 615 7$aFactor models 615 7$aDemand for money 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aEconometric models 615 7$aMoney 676 $a332.46 700 $aStavrev$b Emil$01465934 701 $aBerger$b Helge$01462107 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910788233803321 996 $aThe Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation$93704167 997 $aUNINA