LEADER 06516oam 22012014 450 001 9910788232103321 005 20230721045610.0 010 $a1-4623-6084-X 010 $a1-4527-6017-9 010 $a1-4518-7045-0 010 $a1-282-84138-6 010 $a9786612841385 035 $a(CKB)3170000000055088 035 $a(EBL)1607972 035 $a(SSID)ssj0001488673 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11897724 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001488673 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)11444566 035 $a(PQKB)11214027 035 $a(OCoLC)468802657 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1607972 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2008187 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055088 100 $a20020129d2008 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aWhat Goes Up Must Come Down? House Price Dynamics in the United States /$fVladimir Klyuev 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2008. 215 $a1 online resource (31 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 225 0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/08/187 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4519-1498-9 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aContents; I. Introduction; II. Long-Term Trends; III. Short-Run Dynamics; IV. Is The United States Experiencing a Nationwide House Price Bust?; V. Conclusion; References; Figures; 1. Price Indices for Existing Single-Family Homes, 2000Q1=100; 2. Real Home Price and Rent, 2000=100; 3. Actual and Predicted Real Home Prices by Region. Supply-Demand System; 4. Real OFHEO Purchase-Only House Price (Index; 2000=100); 5. Predicted Prices with Different Estimation End Points; 6. Actual and Predicted Real Home Prices by Region. Single Equation 327 $a7. Real Home Prices - Actual and Estimated in a Cointegrating Relationship Between Home Prices, Rents, and Interest Rates. Estimation with Different End Points8. Real Home Prices - Actual and Estimated in a Cointegrating Relationship Between Home Price-to-Rent Ratio and Interest Rates. Estimation with Different End Points; 9. Real Home Price Predicted by a Cointegration Model; 10. Prediced Log Real Home (Cointegration Method) and Contributions; 11. Sales and Inventory for Sale of Existing Single Family Homes; 12. Simulation of Real Home Price Level 327 $a13. Simulation of Real Home Price Quarterly Growth -- 14. Year-on-Year Growth Rates of Home Prices -- 15. Quarter-on-Quarter Growth Rates of Home Prices -- 16. Standard Deviation of Home Price Growth Rates Across Divisions -- 17. Diffusion Index for Year-on-Year Home Price Growth Across Census Divisions -- ; 18. Diffusion Index for Quarter-on-Quarter Home Price Growth Across Census Divisions -- Tables; 1. Estimated Supply and Demand System for Real Home Prices -- 2. Estimated Equations for Real Home Prices as a Function of Fundamentals -- 3. Home Price as a Function of Fundamentals with Land-Constraint Dummy -- 327 $a4. Cointegrating Relationship Between Real House Prices, Rents, and Interest Rates -- 5. Home Price Appreciation and Price Gap -- 6. Short-Run Determinants of Real Home Price Appreciation -- 7. Evolution of Inventory-to-Sales Ratio 330 3 $aThis paper estimates the evolution of equilibrium real home prices in the United States and finds that despite recent declines, single-family homes remained 8 to 20 percent overvalued as of the first quarter of 2008. In the short run, the gap between actual and equilibrium prices does not exert powerful influence over price dynamics. Instead, that dynamics is driven by the inventory-to-sales ratio and by foreclosure starts in a highly inertial relationship. Taken together, this implies that price declines are likely to continue, including past the point where overvaluation is eliminated. The paper also finds that from the early 1990s onwards changes in regional home prices have been more synchronized than before, and that the recent movements in the average price index have reflected a nationwide housing boom, followed by a nationwide housing bust. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2008/187 606 $aHousing$xPrices$zUnited States 606 $aBanks and Banking$2imf 606 $aInfrastructure$2imf 606 $aLabor$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aReal Estate$2imf 606 $aHousing Supply and Markets$2imf 606 $aPrice Level$2imf 606 $aInflation$2imf 606 $aDeflation$2imf 606 $aEconomic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis$2imf 606 $aHousing$2imf 606 $aInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects$2imf 606 $aUnemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search$2imf 606 $aProperty & real estate$2imf 606 $aFinance$2imf 606 $aLabour$2imf 606 $aincome economics$2imf 606 $aHousing prices$2imf 606 $aAsset prices$2imf 606 $aReal interest rates$2imf 606 $aUnemployment rate$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aSaving and investment$2imf 606 $aInterest rates$2imf 606 $aUnemployment$2imf 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 0$aHousing$xPrices 615 7$aBanks and Banking 615 7$aInfrastructure 615 7$aLabor 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aReal Estate 615 7$aHousing Supply and Markets 615 7$aPrice Level 615 7$aInflation 615 7$aDeflation 615 7$aEconomic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis 615 7$aHousing 615 7$aInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects 615 7$aUnemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search 615 7$aProperty & real estate 615 7$aFinance 615 7$aLabour 615 7$aincome economics 615 7$aHousing prices 615 7$aAsset prices 615 7$aReal interest rates 615 7$aUnemployment rate 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aSaving and investment 615 7$aInterest rates 615 7$aUnemployment 676 $a332.6324 700 $aKlyuev$b Vladimir$01462057 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910788232103321 996 $aWhat Goes Up Must Come Down? 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