LEADER 05335oam 22012014 450 001 9910788231003321 005 20230721045640.0 010 $a1-4623-9817-0 010 $a1-4527-3798-3 010 $a1-4518-7056-6 010 $a9786612841491 010 $a1-282-84149-1 035 $a(CKB)3170000000055100 035 $a(EBL)1608006 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000944023 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11528593 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000944023 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10982811 035 $a(PQKB)11787939 035 $a(OCoLC)763082956 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1608006 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2008198 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055100 100 $a20020129d2008 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aEquilibrium Non-Oil Current Account Assessments for Oil Producing Countries /$fAlun Thomas, Jun Kim, Aqib Aslam 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2008. 215 $a1 online resource (26 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 225 0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/08/198 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4519-1509-8 327 $aContents; I. Introduction; II. Basic Structure of Alternative Methodology; Existing analysis; III. Model; A. General Model; B. Model Application to Oil Based Economy; IV. Estimation; V. Sensitivity Tests of the Annual Return on Oil Wealth; VI. Equilibrium Non-oil Current Account Assessment; A. Historical Accuracy of the Consumption Smoothing Model; B. Country Estimates of Non-oil Current Account; VII. Conclusions; References 330 3 $aThis paper introduces a methodology for assessing external balance in countries with large stocks of non-renewable resources based on oil stock data, and applies it to selected oil producing countries. The methodology uses a stock approach (instead of the more traditional flow approach) to estimate the equilibrium non-oil current account consistent with optimal consumption smoothing. One of the benefits of the stock approach is that geological data for oil reserves can be used to estimate oil wealth; however, the methodology makes the estimated non-oil current account norm very sensitive to oil price projections. Based on an oil price about US$70 per barrel prevailing in the summer of 2007, the baseline estimates indicate that the non-oil current accounts for most of the countries in the sample are broadly in equilibrium. By the same token, using oil price projections as of the summer of 2008 implies large disparities between the equilibrium non-oil current account position and the medium term forecast for all countries in the sample except for Malaysia. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2008/198 606 $aEquilibrium (Economics)$xEconometric models 606 $aBalance of payments$xEconometric models 606 $aPetroleum industry and trade$xEconometric models 606 $aInvestments: Energy$2imf 606 $aExports and Imports$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aIndustries: Energy$2imf 606 $aEnergy: General$2imf 606 $aCurrent Account Adjustment$2imf 606 $aShort-term Capital Movements$2imf 606 $aEnergy: Demand and Supply$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics: Consumption$2imf 606 $aSaving$2imf 606 $aWealth$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics: Production$2imf 606 $aInvestment & securities$2imf 606 $aInternational economics$2imf 606 $aPetroleum, oil & gas industries$2imf 606 $aOil$2imf 606 $aCurrent account$2imf 606 $aOil prices$2imf 606 $aConsumption$2imf 606 $aOil production$2imf 606 $aPetroleum industry and trade$2imf 606 $aBalance of payments$2imf 606 $aEconomics$2imf 607 $aUnited Arab Emirates$2imf 615 0$aEquilibrium (Economics)$xEconometric models. 615 0$aBalance of payments$xEconometric models. 615 0$aPetroleum industry and trade$xEconometric models. 615 7$aInvestments: Energy 615 7$aExports and Imports 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aIndustries: Energy 615 7$aEnergy: General 615 7$aCurrent Account Adjustment 615 7$aShort-term Capital Movements 615 7$aEnergy: Demand and Supply 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aMacroeconomics: Consumption 615 7$aSaving 615 7$aWealth 615 7$aMacroeconomics: Production 615 7$aInvestment & securities 615 7$aInternational economics 615 7$aPetroleum, oil & gas industries 615 7$aOil 615 7$aCurrent account 615 7$aOil prices 615 7$aConsumption 615 7$aOil production 615 7$aPetroleum industry and trade 615 7$aBalance of payments 615 7$aEconomics 676 $a339.5 700 $aThomas$b Alun$01098448 701 $aKim$b Jun$01485150 701 $aAslam$b Aqib$01485151 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910788231003321 996 $aEquilibrium Non-Oil Current Account Assessments for Oil Producing Countries$93704139 997 $aUNINA