LEADER 06568oam 22010934 450 001 9910788221503321 005 20230721045741.0 010 $a1-4623-2649-8 010 $a1-282-84470-9 010 $a1-4518-7428-6 010 $a1-4527-5711-9 010 $a9786612844706 035 $a(CKB)3170000000055405 035 $a(EBL)1606013 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000948677 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11602670 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000948677 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10950791 035 $a(PQKB)10893713 035 $a(OCoLC)671571361 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1606013 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2009283 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055405 100 $a20020129d2009 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aTrade and Thy Neighbor?s War /$fMahvash Qureshi 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2009. 215 $a1 online resource (84 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4519-1844-5 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aCover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Methodology; A. Analytical framework; B. Estimation issues; C. Defining neighbor at war; III. Data; A. Neighbor at war; Figure 1. Conflict in neighboring countries, 1948-2006; Figure 2. Societal armed conflict in neighboring states, 1950-2006; Figure 3. International armed conflict in neighboring states, 1950-2006; Figure 4. Conflict and bilateral trade, 1948-2006; B. Dyadic data description; Table 1. Correlation between domestic and regional conflicts, 1948-2006 327 $aTable 2. Distribution of societal and international conflict in neighbors, 1948-2006IV. Empirical Results; A. World sample; Table 3. Estimation results for conflict presence, world sample (1948-2006); Table 4. Estimation results for conflict intensity, world sample (1948-2006); Table 5. Estimation results for border weighted conflict, world sample (1948-2006); B. Subsamples; Table 6. Estimation results for conflict presence, subsamples (1948-2006); Table 7. Estimation results for conflict intensity, subsamples (1948-2006) 327 $aTable 8. Estimation results for border weighted conflict presence, subsamples (1948-2006)Table 9. Estimation results for border weighted conflict intensity, subsamples (1948-2006); Figure 5. Regional conflict and trade, 1950-2006; C. Dynamic effects of neighbors at war; Figure 6. Impact of regional conflicts on bilateral trade, 1948-2006; Table 10. Estimation results for regional conflict duration, 1948-2006; Table 11. Persistence in regional warfare effects, world sample (1948-2006); Table 12. Persistence in regional warfare effects, subsamples (1948-2006); D. Sensitivity analysis 327 $aV. ConclusionAppendix A; Table A1. Variable definitions and data sources; Table A2. Summary statistics of selected variables for dyadic data; Table A3. List of countries based on income groups; Appendix B; Table B1. Estimation results with alternate datasets; Table B2. Estimation results with alternate proxies, 1948-2006; Table B3. Estimation results with alternate specifications, 1948-2006; Table B4. Estimation results with IV approach, 1948-2006; Table B5. Estimation results for different regions, 1948-2006; References; Footnotes 330 3 $aThis paper examines the spatial dispersion effects of regional conflicts, defined as internal or external armed conflicts in contiguous states, on international trade. Our empirical findings-based on different measures of conflict constructed using alternate definitions of contiguity and conflict-reveal a significant collateral damage in terms of foregone trade as a result of spillovers from conflict in neighboring countries. The magnitude of this negative externality is somewhat larger for international conflicts than intrastate warfare, but about one-third of conflict in the host economies. Further, the impact is persistent-on average, it takes bilateral trade three years to recover from the end of intrastate conflicts in neighboring states, and five years from international conflicts. These findings are robust to alternate definitions of conflict, estimation methods, and specifications, and underscore the importance of taking into account spillover effects when estimating the economic costs of warfare. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2009/283 606 $aInternational trade 606 $aInternational economic relations 606 $aEconometrics$2imf 606 $aExports and Imports$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aTrade Policy$2imf 606 $aInternational Trade Organizations$2imf 606 $aPersonal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions$2imf 606 $aEmpirical Studies of Trade$2imf 606 $aEstimation$2imf 606 $aEconometric Modeling: General$2imf 606 $aInternational economics$2imf 606 $aEconometrics & economic statistics$2imf 606 $aPlurilateral trade$2imf 606 $aPersonal income$2imf 606 $aTrade balance$2imf 606 $aEstimation techniques$2imf 606 $aGravity models$2imf 606 $aInternational trade$2imf 606 $aIncome$2imf 606 $aBalance of trade$2imf 606 $aEconometric models$2imf 607 $aTanzania, United Republic of$2imf 615 0$aInternational trade. 615 0$aInternational economic relations. 615 7$aEconometrics 615 7$aExports and Imports 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aTrade Policy 615 7$aInternational Trade Organizations 615 7$aPersonal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions 615 7$aEmpirical Studies of Trade 615 7$aEstimation 615 7$aEconometric Modeling: General 615 7$aInternational economics 615 7$aEconometrics & economic statistics 615 7$aPlurilateral trade 615 7$aPersonal income 615 7$aTrade balance 615 7$aEstimation techniques 615 7$aGravity models 615 7$aInternational trade 615 7$aIncome 615 7$aBalance of trade 615 7$aEconometric models 700 $aQureshi$b Mahvash$01485180 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund. 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910788221503321 996 $aTrade and Thy Neighbor?s War$93741519 997 $aUNINA