LEADER 07245oam 22013214 450 001 9910788093003321 005 20230803195945.0 010 $a1-4983-9028-5 010 $a1-4843-2177-4 035 $a(CKB)2670000000572569 035 $a(EBL)1829596 035 $a(SSID)ssj0001398960 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11716410 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001398960 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)11450173 035 $a(PQKB)11385463 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1829596 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1829596 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10959488 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL653736 035 $a(OCoLC)894791309 035 $a(IMF)1BLZEA2014001 035 $a(EXLCZ)992670000000572569 100 $a20020129d2014 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcnu|||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aBelize : $eStaff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2014. 215 $a1 online resource (72 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Staff Country Reports 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4983-1172-5 311 $a1-322-22456-0 327 $aCover; CONTENTS; BACKGROUND; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS; MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND RISKS; POLICY DISCUSSIONS; A. A More Ambitious Fiscal Stance to Restore Debt Sustainability and Create Credible Policy Buffers; B. A Stronger Financial System to Reduce Financial Stability and Fiscal Risks; C. More Proactive Policies to Buttress External Sector Resilience, and Enhance Competitiveness and Inclusive Growth; OTHER; STAFF APPRAISAL; 1. Real Sector Developments; FIGURES; 2. External Sector Developments; 3. Fiscal Sector Developments; 4. Monetary and Financial Sector Developments 327 $a5. Debt Markets Developments TABLES; 1. Selected Social and Economic Indicators; 2. Operations of the Central Government; 3. Operations of the Banking System, 2009-15; 4. Balance of Payments, 2009-19; 5. Medium-Term Outlook, 2009-19; 6. Public and Publicly Guaranteed Debt Simulations, 2009-19; ANNEXES; I. Remaining Gaps in AML/CFT Framework; II. The 2014/15 Budget and the Medium-Term Fiscal Framework; III. Belize-Debt Sustainability Analysis; IV. External Stability Assessment; V. Risks Assessment Matrix; VI. Fiscal Risks from State-Owned Enterprises; VII. National Health Insurance 327 $aVIII. The National Development Framework for Belize 2010-2030 330 3 $aKEY ISSUES Outlook and risks. The economy will remain vulnerable over the medium term, with sluggish real GDP growth, rising public debt and widening external current account deficits. International reserves could decline to uncomfortably low levels. The financial system would continue to be hampered by high NPLs and low capital buffers, especially at a systemic bank. Main fiscal risks include a court decision that could lead to a larger than expected compensation to the former owners of the nationalized companies, weaknesses in a systemic bank, and the cost of the new public bank. Focus of the Consultation. Discussions focused on measures that would place public debt on a sustainable path; address weaknesses in the financial system, particularly in a systemic bank; buttress external sector resilience; and enhance competitiveness and inclusive growth. Key policy advice. ? Improve the primary fiscal balance to about 4.5 percent of GDP starting in 2015. This could be achieved mainly by allowing spending on goods and services to rise only in line with inflation; containing the expansion in the wage bill; requiring public workers to contribute to their pensions; and by widening the tax base and strengthening revenue administration. Active debt management, including refinancing of expensive debt with low-earning deposits (essentially from PetroCaribe), would support these efforts. ? Address banking sector vulnerabilities through improving capital buffers. ? Improve public financial management (PFM) to contain low-quality spending, strengthen budget formulation, preparation, and execution, and improve the coverage and accuracy of budget documents. ? Further improve the business environment to attract more private investment, boost competitiveness, and enhance job-creating and inclusive growth. Implementation of staff advice. Implementation of recent staff advice is mixed. The breathing room provided by the debt restructuring was not used to improve the primary fiscal balance. The authorities plan to review exemptions and zero-ratings under the GST. 410 0$aIMF Staff Country Reports; Country Report ;$vNo. 2014/280 606 $aBanks and Banking$2imf 606 $aExports and Imports$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aPublic Finance$2imf 606 $aIndustries: Financial Services$2imf 606 $aCriminology$2imf 606 $aBanks$2imf 606 $aDepository Institutions$2imf 606 $aMicro Finance Institutions$2imf 606 $aMortgages$2imf 606 $aMonetary Policy$2imf 606 $aTaxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General$2imf 606 $aFiscal Policy$2imf 606 $aLabor Economics: General$2imf 606 $aNational Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General$2imf 606 $aBanking$2imf 606 $aPublic finance & taxation$2imf 606 $aFinance$2imf 606 $aLabour$2imf 606 $aincome economics$2imf 606 $aInternational reserves$2imf 606 $aLoans$2imf 606 $aRevenue administration$2imf 606 $aFiscal stance$2imf 606 $aFiscal policy$2imf 606 $aCentral banks$2imf 606 $aExpenditure$2imf 606 $aFinancial institutions$2imf 606 $aBanks and banking$2imf 606 $aForeign exchange reserves$2imf 606 $aRevenue$2imf 606 $aExpenditures, Public$2imf 607 $aBelize$xEconomic conditions 607 $aBelize$2imf 615 7$aBanks and Banking 615 7$aExports and Imports 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aPublic Finance 615 7$aIndustries: Financial Services 615 7$aCriminology 615 7$aBanks 615 7$aDepository Institutions 615 7$aMicro Finance Institutions 615 7$aMortgages 615 7$aMonetary Policy 615 7$aTaxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General 615 7$aFiscal Policy 615 7$aLabor Economics: General 615 7$aNational Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General 615 7$aBanking 615 7$aPublic finance & taxation 615 7$aFinance 615 7$aLabour 615 7$aincome economics 615 7$aInternational reserves 615 7$aLoans 615 7$aRevenue administration 615 7$aFiscal stance 615 7$aFiscal policy 615 7$aCentral banks 615 7$aExpenditure 615 7$aFinancial institutions 615 7$aBanks and banking 615 7$aForeign exchange reserves 615 7$aRevenue 615 7$aExpenditures, Public 676 $a330.97282052 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910788093003321 996 $aBelize$91187294 997 $aUNINA