LEADER 05510nam 2200649 450 001 9910788076803321 005 20200520144314.0 010 $a1-4422-3587-X 035 $a(CKB)2670000000574401 035 $a(EBL)1832611 035 $a(SSID)ssj0001368649 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11859502 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001368649 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)11463590 035 $a(PQKB)10513593 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1832611 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1832611 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr11027614 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL656190 035 $a(OCoLC)894554743 035 $a(EXLCZ)992670000000574401 100 $a20150310h20142014 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aQuantitative intelligence analysis $eapplied analytic models, simulations and games /$fEdward Waltz 210 1$aLanham, Maryland :$cRowman & Littlefield,$d2014. 210 4$dİ2014 215 $a1 online resource (309 p.) 225 1 $aSecurity and Professional Intelligence Education Series 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4422-3586-1 311 $a1-322-24910-5 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references at the end of each chapters and index. 327 $aQuantitative Intelligence Analysis; Table of Contents; List of Figures; List of Tables; Foreword; Preface; Chapter 1 The Intelligence Analyst and Synthesis; Models in Intelligence and Policy; The Tools of Synthesis; The Organization of this Book; Chapter 2 Modeling in Intelligence; Using Models to Understand Systems; Using Models to Enable Analytic Collaboration; Using Models to Explain Analytic Judgment; Challenges to the Use of Models; Determinism, Causality, and Prediction; Case Study: Understanding Terrorist Organization; Summary; Chapter 3 Mental Models in Intelligence Analysis 327 $aModels of ThinkingMental Models as Artifacts of Thinking; Intelligence Analysts and Their Mental Models; Chapter 4 Translating Mental Models to Explicit Sharable Models; Framing and Representing an Intelligence Problem; Tacit-Explicit Capture and Interaction; The Tacit-Explicit Translation Process; Understanding Mental Models and Cognitive Processes to Enhance Analytic Rigor; Chapter 5 Explicit Models in Structured and Quantitative Analysis; Structured and Quantitative Analysis; First, a Caution; Explicit Models in the Analytic Process; The Explicit Modeling Process 327 $aCase Study: An Example of the Explicit Modeling ProcessSummary; Chapter 6 Explicit Models of Analytic Thinking; Expressing Analytic Thought in Explicit Models; Modeling the Concepts that Precede Analysis; Modeling in Counterfactual Reasoning; Modeling in Convergent Reasoning from Evidence to Inference; Modeling Comparative Reasoning about Alternative Hypotheses; Integrating Target and Analysis Models; Chapter 7 Explicit Models of the Targets of Analysis; Models of Data and Models of Theory; Models and Model Prediction in Intelligence; Abstracting Real Target Systems; The Validity of Models 327 $aDescriptive Models in AnalysisExploratory and Predictive Simulations in Analysis; Case Study: Simulating a Physical System; Simulating Human Systems; Case Study: Civilian Population Responses to Sanctions; Hybrid Modeling Socio-Technical Systems; Case Study: Model-based support to Planning: Joint Intelligence Preparation of the Operational Environment (JIPOE); Methodology and Technology Challenges; Chapter 8 Analytic Wargaming in Intelligence; Principles of Gaming and Categories of Games; Analytic Games in Intelligence; The Game Process 327 $aIncorporating Computational Models and Simulations in Analytic GamesCase Study: Conducting Analytic Games to Support Intelligence; CRYSTALLINE; VERTIGO; Analytic Games to Enhance Work-Group Effectiveness; Chapter 9 Model-Based Support to Collection and Operations; Model-Based Approaches to ISR Collection Support for Physical Target Systems; Model-Based Approaches to Support Activity-Based Intelligence (ABI) for Human Target Systems; Case Study: Model-Based Collection Support; Hypothesis Testing Analytic Method; The Future Role of Models and Simulations in Joint Intelligence Operations 327 $aChapter 10 Implementing the Discipline of Explicit Quantitative Modeling and Analytic Gaming 330 $aQuantitative Intelligence Analysis describes the model-based method of intelligence analysis that represents the analyst's mental models of a subject, as well as the analyst's reasoning process exposing what the analyst believes about the subject, and how they arrived at those beliefs and converged on analytic judgments. It includes:Specific methods of explicitly representing the analyst's mental models as computational models;Dynamic simulations and interactive analytic games;The structure of an analyst's mental model and the theoretical basis for capturing and representing the tacit knowledg 410 0$aSecurity and professional intelligence education series. 606 $aIntelligence service$xMethodology 606 $aQuantitative research 615 0$aIntelligence service$xMethodology. 615 0$aQuantitative research. 676 $a327.1201 700 $aWaltz$b Edward$01490906 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910788076803321 996 $aQuantitative intelligence analysis$93721964 997 $aUNINA