LEADER 08538oam 22014894 450 001 9910788070803321 005 20230803200002.0 010 $a1-4983-0240-8 010 $a1-4983-0232-7 035 $a(CKB)2670000000574360 035 $a(EBL)1831411 035 $a(SSID)ssj0001398974 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11729890 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001398974 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)11449931 035 $a(PQKB)10410679 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1831411 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1831411 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10980869 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL656147 035 $a(OCoLC)894791633 035 $a(IMF)REOMCDEA2014002 035 $a(EXLCZ)992670000000574360 100 $a20020129d2014 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcnu|||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aRegional Economic Outlook, October 2014, Middle East and Central Asia, 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2014. 215 $a1 online resource (122 p.) 225 1 $aRegional Economic Outlook 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4983-4373-2 311 $a1-322-24867-2 327 $aCover; Contents; Acknowledgments; Assumptions and Conventions; Country Groupings; World Economic Outlook; MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFGHANISTAN, AND PAKISTAN; MENAP Region Highlights; (Omitted); Re?gion MOANAP: Principaux Points; 1. MENAP Oil Exporters: Increasing Diversification, Reducing Reliance on Oil-Funded Spending; Rising 2015 Growth Depends on Improving Security; Figures; 1.1 Growth to Rise on Delayed Non-GCC Recovery; 1.2 Faster Growth Has Not Prompted Higher Inflation; 1.3 MENAP Oil Exporters: Real Effective Exchange Rates; Boxes; 1.1 Economic Implications of the Iraq Conflict 327 $aOil Price Risks Remain Balanced, but Geopolitical Risks Have Risen 1.2 Capital Flows to GCC Countries; Falling Oil Revenues and Rising Government Spending Are Weakening Fiscal Positions; 1.4 Oil Price Uncertainties Increase Vulnerabilities; 1.5 Wages and Capital Raise GCC Government Spending; 1.6 Fiscal Positions Are Weakening; 1.7 High Oil Prices Will Not Save Fiscal Positions; 1.8 Nonhydrocarbon Deficits Are Too High for Intergenerational Equity in Most Countries; 1.9 Oil and Gas Consumption Are Growing; 1.10 Current Account Balances Are Falling 327 $aGrowth from Diversification, Not Rising Oil Prices 1.11 GDP Growth Relies on Rising Oil Prices; 1.12 Signs That Labor Market Reforms Are Bearing Fruit?; 1.13 Public Sector Wage Bills Are High; 2. MENAP Oil Importers: Slow Recovery and Modest Prospects Call for Reform; Fragile Confidence Constrains Recovery; 2.1 Consumption and Investment Drive Contributions to Real GDP Growth; 2.1 Better Protection for the Poor in MENA; 2.2 Exports of Goods and Foreign Direct Investment; 2.3 Risk Premiums Are Declining; 2.4 Real Exchange Rate in MENAP Oil Importers 327 $a2.5 Growth Insufficient to Improve Living Standards 2.2 Impact of Fiscal Measures on Jobs in MENAP Oil-Importing Economies; Downside Risks Are Elevated; Gradually Declining External and Fiscal Vulnerabilities; 2.6 Inflation Pressures Persist; 2.7 Fiscal Deficit and Reserves; 2.8 Change in Revenue and Expenditure; Tables; 2.1 Spending on Energy Subsidies; 2.3 Shifting Patterns in Official External Financing in MENAP Oil Importers; 2.9 Fiscal Financing Needs; 2.10 External Financing Needs; Fiscal, Monetary, and Exchange Rate Policies: Going Beyond Macroeconomic Stability 327 $aLackluster Medium-Term Prospects Structural Transformation to Boost Growth; 2.11 Raising Medium-Term Growth and Job Prospects Requires Structural Reforms; International Support; CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA; CCA Region Highlights; ???????? ????????? ?? ??????? ???; 3. Caucasus and Central Asia: Increased Risks Highlight Need for Reform; Russia's Slowdown Is Weighing on CCA Economic Activity; 3.1 Real GDP Growth; 3.2 CCA: Real GDP Growth; Risks Are Largely to the Downside; 3.3 Growth Revisions versus Policy Buffers; 3.4 Linkages with Russia; 3.1 Growth Shocks in Russia: Implications for the CCA 327 $aInflation Pressures Call for Effective Monetary Policy Frameworks 330 3 $aThis issue discusses economic developments in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP), which continue to reflect the diversity of conditions prevailing across the region. Most high-income oil exporters, primarily in the GCC, continue to record steady growth and solid economic and financial fundamentals, albeit with medium-term challenges that need to be addressed. In contrast, other countries?Iraq, Libya, and Syria?are mired in conflicts with not only humanitarian but also economic consequences. And yet other countries, mostly oil importers, are making continued but uneven progress in advancing their economic agendas, often in tandem with political transitions and amidst difficult social conditions. In most of these countries, without extensive economic and structural reforms, economic prospects for the medium term remain insufficient to reduce high unemployment and improve living standards. 410 0$aRegional Economic Outlook 606 $aEconomic forecasting$zAsia, Central 606 $aEconomic forecasting$zMiddle East 606 $aInvestments: Energy$2imf 606 $aExports and Imports$2imf 606 $aInflation$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aPublic Finance$2imf 606 $aForeign Exchange$2imf 606 $aIndustries: Energy$2imf 606 $aEnergy: General$2imf 606 $aEnergy: Demand and Supply$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aFiscal Policy$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics: Production$2imf 606 $aNational Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures$2imf 606 $aOther Public Investment and Capital Stock$2imf 606 $aPrice Level$2imf 606 $aDeflation$2imf 606 $aInvestment & securities$2imf 606 $aInternational economics$2imf 606 $aPublic finance & taxation$2imf 606 $aCurrency$2imf 606 $aForeign exchange$2imf 606 $aPetroleum, oil & gas industries$2imf 606 $aOil$2imf 606 $aOil prices$2imf 606 $aFiscal stance$2imf 606 $aOil production$2imf 606 $aCommodities$2imf 606 $aFiscal policy$2imf 606 $aPublic investment and public-private partnerships (PPP)$2imf 606 $aExpenditure$2imf 606 $aProduction$2imf 606 $aPetroleum industry and trade$2imf 606 $aExports$2imf 606 $aPublic-private sector cooperation$2imf 606 $aBalance of payments$2imf 607 $aAsia, Central$xEconomic conditions$y21st century 607 $aAsia, Central$xEconomic conditions$vStatistics 607 $aRussian Federation$2imf 615 0$aEconomic forecasting 615 0$aEconomic forecasting 615 7$aInvestments: Energy 615 7$aExports and Imports 615 7$aInflation 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aPublic Finance 615 7$aForeign Exchange 615 7$aIndustries: Energy 615 7$aEnergy: General 615 7$aEnergy: Demand and Supply 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aFiscal Policy 615 7$aMacroeconomics: Production 615 7$aNational Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures 615 7$aOther Public Investment and Capital Stock 615 7$aPrice Level 615 7$aDeflation 615 7$aInvestment & securities 615 7$aInternational economics 615 7$aPublic finance & taxation 615 7$aCurrency 615 7$aForeign exchange 615 7$aPetroleum, oil & gas industries 615 7$aOil 615 7$aOil prices 615 7$aFiscal stance 615 7$aOil production 615 7$aCommodities 615 7$aFiscal policy 615 7$aPublic investment and public-private partnerships (PPP) 615 7$aExpenditure 615 7$aProduction 615 7$aPetroleum industry and trade 615 7$aExports 615 7$aPublic-private sector cooperation 615 7$aBalance of payments 676 $a303.409584 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910788070803321 996 $aRegional Economic Outlook, October 2014, Middle East and Central Asia$93721909 997 $aUNINA