LEADER 02867nam 2200577 450 001 9910787708403321 005 20230803195409.0 010 $a3-95489-632-X 035 $a(CKB)2670000000534355 035 $a(EBL)1640347 035 $a(SSID)ssj0001215090 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11708323 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001215090 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)11174511 035 $a(PQKB)11611227 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1640347 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1640347 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10856536 035 $a(OCoLC)871779983 035 $a(EXLCZ)992670000000534355 100 $a20140416h20142014 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aDoes money matter in predicting future events? /$fSebastian Diemer 210 1$aHamburg, Germany :$cAnchor Academic Publishing,$d2014. 210 4$dİ2014 215 $a1 online resource (50 p.) 225 1 $aCompact 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a3-95489-132-8 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aDoes money matter in predicting future events?; Abstract; List of Content; 1. Introduction and Theoretical Fundamentals; 1.1 Introduction; 1.2 Definition of Prediction Markets; 1.3 Theoretical Framework; 2. Literature Overview; 2.1 Real-Money vs. Play-Money; 2.2 Other Factors With Influence on Forecasting Accuracy; 2.3 Closed Prediction Markets; 3. Data; 3.1 Data Provider; 3.2 Definition of Variables; 4. Results; 4.1 Overall Data; 4.2 Real-Money vs. Play-Money: Portfolio Comparison; 4.3 Real-Money vs. Play-Money: Direct Contract Comparison; 4.4 Real-Money/Play-Money: Influencing Factors 327 $a4.5. ConclusionReferences; Appendix 330 $aPrediction markets are online trading platforms where contracts on future events are traded with payoffs being exclusively linked to event occurrence. Scientific research has shown that market prices of such contracts imply high forecasting accuracy through effective information aggregation of dispersed knowledge. This phenomenon is related to incentives for truthful aggregation in the form of real-money or play-money rewards. The question whether real- or play-money incentives enhance higher relative forecast accuracy has been addressed by previous works with diverse findings. The current sta 410 0$aCompact. 606 $aMonetary policy$xMathematical models 606 $aInvestments$zGermany 615 0$aMonetary policy$xMathematical models. 615 0$aInvestments 676 $a332.46 700 $aDiemer$b Sebastian$01476353 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910787708403321 996 $aDoes money matter in predicting future events$93690941 997 $aUNINA