LEADER 06040oam 22011894 450 001 9910787668503321 005 20230803031255.0 010 $a1-4843-9716-9 010 $a1-4843-5149-5 010 $a1-4843-0161-7 035 $a(CKB)2670000000420252 035 $a(EBL)1587890 035 $a(SSID)ssj0001076407 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11569156 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001076407 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)11014901 035 $a(PQKB)10300175 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1587890 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1587890 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10739491 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL493123 035 $a(OCoLC)867928067 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2013089 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2013089 035 $a(EXLCZ)992670000000420252 100 $a20020129d2013 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aFiscal Sustainability : $eA 21st Century Guide for the Perplexed /$fEvan Tanner 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2013. 215 $a1 online resource (93 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4843-8199-8 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aCover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; Tables; Figures; I. Introduction; 1. Government Debt/GDP, Selected Countries, Weighted Average; II. The Building Blocks of a Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA); A. The Public Sector Budget Constraint; B. Ad-Hoc Targets For The Public Debt and/or The Primary Surplus; C. Alternative Scenarios in a Debt Sustainability Analysis; 1. Summary, Recent Research on Public Debt Sustainability, Stochastic Approach; III. The Government's Present Value Constraint: A Restatement; IV. Maximum Sustainable Debt 327 $aV. Distributing Surpluses Over Time: A Fiscal Objective Function A. Objective: How To Distribute The Fiscal Burden Over Time; B. Objective Functions and Structural Surpluses-Further Considerations; C. Debt and Expenditure Smoothing-Evidence From the Recent Downturn; 2. Industrialized Countries: Change in Primary Government Spending (ratio to GDP) 2009 Minus 2008 (vertical axis), and Net Public Debt/GDP (horizontal axis); 3. Emerging Economies: Change in Primary Government Spending (ratio to GDP) 2009 minus 2008 (vertical axis), and Net Public Debt/GDP (horizontal axis) 327 $aVI. Required Adjustment in an Uncertain Environment 2. Target Primary Surplus, Probabilistic Approach; 4. Target Primary Surplus, "Low" Volatility Case; 3. Example of Tax Smoothing with Uncertain Potential Output; 5. Target Primary Surplus, "High" Volatility Case; VIII. Prospective Liabilities; 4. Long-run Fiscal Imbalances in the United States; IX. The Net Worth Approach; X. Non-Renewable Resources; 5. Non-Renewable Resource Management: Permanent Income and "Bird-In-Hand" Approaches; 6. Approximate Sovereign Cumulative Default Probabilities: 5-year bonds 327 $a7. Assessment of Fiscal Sustainability for a Hypothetical Economy: A Contingent Claims Approach XII. Summary and Conclusions; References; XI. Contingent Claims Analysis and Market Indicators of Default Risk; VII. Sustainability Over The Business Cycle; Footnotes 330 3 $aThis paper critically reviews recent work regarding the sustainability of public debt. It argues that Debt Sustainability Analyses (DSAs) should be more than mere mechanical simulation exercises. Instead, a DSA should be linked to some objective regarding the distribution of fiscal burdens and distortions over time (in the tradition of Barro?s 1979 tax smoothing objective). The paper discusses objective functions that yield simple and transparent fiscal policy rules. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2013/089 606 $aFiscal policy$xEconometric models 606 $aConvergence (Economics)$xEconometric models 606 $aInvestments: Energy$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aPublic Finance$2imf 606 $aPolicy Objectives$2imf 606 $aPolicy Designs and Consistency$2imf 606 $aPolicy Coordination$2imf 606 $aFiscal Policy$2imf 606 $aNational Deficit Surplus$2imf 606 $aDebt$2imf 606 $aDebt Management$2imf 606 $aSovereign Debt$2imf 606 $aForecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt$2imf 606 $aEnergy: General$2imf 606 $aPublic finance & taxation$2imf 606 $aInvestment & securities$2imf 606 $aPublic debt$2imf 606 $aFiscal consolidation$2imf 606 $aOil$2imf 606 $aFiscal sustainability$2imf 606 $aFiscal policy$2imf 606 $aCommodities$2imf 606 $aDebts, Public$2imf 606 $aPetroleum industry and trade$2imf 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 0$aFiscal policy$xEconometric models. 615 0$aConvergence (Economics)$xEconometric models. 615 7$aInvestments: Energy 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aPublic Finance 615 7$aPolicy Objectives 615 7$aPolicy Designs and Consistency 615 7$aPolicy Coordination 615 7$aFiscal Policy 615 7$aNational Deficit Surplus 615 7$aDebt 615 7$aDebt Management 615 7$aSovereign Debt 615 7$aForecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt 615 7$aEnergy: General 615 7$aPublic finance & taxation 615 7$aInvestment & securities 615 7$aPublic debt 615 7$aFiscal consolidation 615 7$aOil 615 7$aFiscal sustainability 615 7$aFiscal policy 615 7$aCommodities 615 7$aDebts, Public 615 7$aPetroleum industry and trade 700 $aTanner$b Evan$01464144 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund. 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910787668503321 996 $aFiscal Sustainability$93723077 997 $aUNINA