LEADER 05985oam 22011054 450 001 9910786484903321 005 20230801225333.0 010 $a1-4755-2480-3 010 $a1-4755-6613-1 035 $a(CKB)2670000000278884 035 $a(EBL)1606835 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000940788 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11528531 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940788 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10955963 035 $a(PQKB)10860306 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1606835 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1606835 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10627105 035 $a(OCoLC)800083422 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2012175 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2012175 035 $a(EXLCZ)992670000000278884 100 $a20020129d2012 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aInternational Capital Flows and Debt Dynamics /$fMartin Evans 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2012. 215 $a1 online resource (60 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 225 0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/12/175 300 $a"July 2012." 311 $a1-4755-8121-1 311 $a1-4755-0523-X 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aCover; Contents; 1 Introduction; 2 International Assets, Liabilities, Returns and Trade Flows; 2.1 The Balance of Payments and Consolidated Budget Constraint; 2.2 Trade Flows, Asset Pricing and Portfolio Choice; List of Figures; 1 Alternative Measures of the U.S. External Position; 3 A Model of Capital Flow Dynamics; 3.1 Approximating the Consolidated Budget Constraint; 3.2 Net Positions and Capital Flows; 3.3 Gross Positions and Capital Flows; 3.4 Equilibrium Positions and Capital Flows; 4 Data and Estimation; 4.1 Data; 4.2 Adjusting Trade Flows 327 $a2 Trends In U.S. Foreign Assets, Liabilities and Real Trade Flows 4.3 Sample Statistics; 3 Approximation Accuracy; List of Tables; 1 Summary Statistics; 2 Returns and Portfolio Shares; 4.4 Estimation; 4 Changes in the Composition of Asset and Liability Portfolios; 3 Granger Causality Tests; 5 Results; 5.1 Net Position Dynamics; 5 Historical Behavior of the U.S. Net External Position and its Components; 4 Variance Decompositions of xp[sub(t)]; 5.2 Gross Position Dynamics; 6 Historical Behavior of U.S. Gross Foreign Asset and Liability Positions and their Components 327 $a5 Variance Decompositions for ?[sup(FA)][sub(t)] and ?[sup(PL)][sub(t)] 5.3 Net Capital Flows; 7 Variance Contributions of Trade and Returns to U.S. Net Capital Flows; 8 Variance Contributions of Net Capital Flows; 5.4 Gross Capital Flows; 9 Historical Behavior of U.S. Gross Foreign Asset and Liability Positions and their Components; 10 Variance Contributions to Gross Capital Flows; 11 Variance Contributions of Gross Capital Flows; 6 U.S. Returns and The Exorbitant Privilege; 6.1 Portfolio Composition; 6 Portfolio Returns and Their Components 327 $a12 Composition Effects and the size of the Valuation Channel 6.2 The Role of the Dollar; 7 Returns and the Dollar Depreciation Rates; 13 The U.S. Net External Position and the Role of the Dollar; 7 Conclusion 330 3 $aThis paper presents a new model for studying international capital flows and debt dynamics that emphasizes the role played by expectations concerning future trade flows and returns. I use the model to estimate the drivers of the U.S. external position and capital flows between 1973 and 2008. The estimates show that most of the secular rise in U.S. international indebtedness is attributable to growing optimism about future returns on U.S. holdings of foreign equity and FDI assets. They also show that the transformation of world savings into risky assets by the U.S. had little effect on its external position, but the expected future real depreciation of the dollar allowed the U.S. to sustain a higher level of international debt after the 1990s. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2012/175 606 $aCapital movements 606 $aDebt 606 $aExports and Imports$2imf 606 $aForeign Exchange$2imf 606 $aCurrent Account Adjustment$2imf 606 $aShort-term Capital Movements$2imf 606 $aInternational Lending and Debt Problems$2imf 606 $aInternational Investment$2imf 606 $aLong-term Capital Movements$2imf 606 $aEmpirical Studies of Trade$2imf 606 $aInternational economics$2imf 606 $aForeign assets$2imf 606 $aExternal position$2imf 606 $aCapital flows$2imf 606 $aForeign liabilities$2imf 606 $aTrade balance$2imf 606 $aBalance of payments$2imf 606 $aInternational trade$2imf 606 $aInvestments, Foreign$2imf 606 $aInternational finance$2imf 606 $aCapital movements$2imf 606 $aBalance of trade$2imf 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 0$aCapital movements. 615 0$aDebt. 615 7$aExports and Imports 615 7$aForeign Exchange 615 7$aCurrent Account Adjustment 615 7$aShort-term Capital Movements 615 7$aInternational Lending and Debt Problems 615 7$aInternational Investment 615 7$aLong-term Capital Movements 615 7$aEmpirical Studies of Trade 615 7$aInternational economics 615 7$aForeign assets 615 7$aExternal position 615 7$aCapital flows 615 7$aForeign liabilities 615 7$aTrade balance 615 7$aBalance of payments 615 7$aInternational trade 615 7$aInvestments, Foreign 615 7$aInternational finance 615 7$aCapital movements 615 7$aBalance of trade 700 $aEvans$b Martin$0106630 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910786484903321 996 $aInternational Capital Flows and Debt Dynamics$93858236 997 $aUNINA