LEADER 05864oam 22011654 450 001 9910786475003321 005 20230801225511.0 010 $a1-4755-9827-0 010 $a1-4755-3267-9 035 $a(CKB)2670000000278940 035 $a(EBL)1606895 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000940769 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11532940 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940769 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10956079 035 $a(PQKB)11383836 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1606895 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1606895 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10627161 035 $a(OCoLC)870245018 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2012192 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2012192 035 $a(EXLCZ)992670000000278940 100 $a20020129d2012 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aInflation Dynamics in Mongolia : $eUnderstanding the Roller Coaster /$fJulia Bersch, Steven Barnett, Yasuhisa Ojima 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2012. 215 $a1 online resource (22 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 225 0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/12/192 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4755-6088-5 311 $a1-4755-0541-8 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aCover; Contents; I. Introduction; Figures; 1. Inflation: Headline CPI; 2. Inflation, 1995-2010; II. A Closer Look at the Consumer Price Index; 3. Export Earnings and Fiscal Spending; 4. Administered Price Changes; 5. Inflation: Contributions to Change; 6. Inflation Rates; Tables; 1. Descriptive Statistics of the Overall Inflation Rate and the Main Subcomponents; 7 Seasonal Factors; 8. Inflation Rates (In percent, seasonally adjuted annualized rate month-on-month); 9. Inflation Rates (In percent, seasonally adjusted annualized rate) 327 $aIII. Understanding Inflation Through its Time Series PropertiesA. Inflation Persistence and Expectations; 2. Persistence in CPI and its Subcomponents; 10. Inflation: Persistence Shocks; 3. Mongolia and Other Copper Producers; B. Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) Analysis; 11 Impulse Response Functions; IV. Demand-pull Factor of Inflation; A. The Role of Fiscal Spending; 12 Variance Decomposition; 13. Fiscal Spending (In percent of non-mineral GDP); 14. Fiscal Spending (In percent, 4-quarter moving average, year-on-year); 4. Inflationary Impact of Government Spending, 2000-11 327 $aB. The Role of Output Gaps and the Exchange Rate15. Mongolia: Output Gap (2000Q1-2011Q4); 16. Exchange Rates; 5. Phillips-Curve Estimation; V. International Context; A. Commodity Prices; 17. Food Prices; 18. Rice Prices; 19. Wheat and Flour Prices; B. Price Spillovers from Neighboring Countries-China and Russia; 6. China and Russia; VI. Conclusion; Annex. The Ulaanbaatar and National CPIs; References 330 3 $aInflation in Mongolia resembles a roller coaster ride with sharp rises and steep drops. Understanding why is critical for formulating and assessing monetary policy. Food prices are found to be a key driver of inflation, and, not surprising given Mongolia?s geography, are determined primarily by local supply conditions, highly seasonal, and subject to large but short-lived shocks (usually weather related). Nonetheless, demand factors are also found to be significant in explaining price movements and empirical evidence suggests that a 10 percent increase in government wages, for example, would push up underlying inflation by 1 percentage point. So, while inflation will remain volatile due to agricultural shocks, there is space for macroeconomic stabilization policy to help reduce inflation volatility. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2012/192 606 $aInflation (Finance)$zMongolia 606 $aFinance$zMongolia 606 $aInflation$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aEconomic Theory$2imf 606 $aPrice Level$2imf 606 $aDeflation$2imf 606 $aBusiness Fluctuations$2imf 606 $aCycles$2imf 606 $aTime-Series Models$2imf 606 $aDynamic Quantile Regressions$2imf 606 $aDynamic Treatment Effect Models$2imf 606 $aDiffusion Processes$2imf 606 $aAgriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aEconomic theory & philosophy$2imf 606 $aFood prices$2imf 606 $aConsumer price indexes$2imf 606 $aSupply shocks$2imf 606 $aPrice controls$2imf 606 $aEconomic theory$2imf 606 $aPrice indexes$2imf 606 $aSupply and demand$2imf 606 $aGovernment policy$2imf 607 $aMongolia$2imf 615 0$aInflation (Finance) 615 0$aFinance 615 7$aInflation 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aEconomic Theory 615 7$aPrice Level 615 7$aDeflation 615 7$aBusiness Fluctuations 615 7$aCycles 615 7$aTime-Series Models 615 7$aDynamic Quantile Regressions 615 7$aDynamic Treatment Effect Models 615 7$aDiffusion Processes 615 7$aAgriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aEconomic theory & philosophy 615 7$aFood prices 615 7$aConsumer price indexes 615 7$aSupply shocks 615 7$aPrice controls 615 7$aEconomic theory 615 7$aPrice indexes 615 7$aSupply and demand 615 7$aGovernment policy 700 $aBersch$b Julia$01536617 701 $aBarnett$b Steven$01536618 701 $aOjima$b Yasuhisa$01536619 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910786475003321 996 $aInflation Dynamics in Mongolia$93785474 997 $aUNINA