LEADER 04923nam 2200613Ia 450 001 9910782979103321 005 20230721005244.0 010 $a0-309-18574-2 010 $a1-281-97299-1 010 $a0-309-12029-2 010 $a9786611972998 035 $a(CKB)1000000000721511 035 $a(EBL)3564160 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000136834 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11144664 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000136834 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10084110 035 $a(PQKB)11287972 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC3564160 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL3564160 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10267572 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL197299 035 $a(OCoLC)567928266 035 $a(EXLCZ)991000000000721511 100 $a20081008d2008 uh 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 00$aDepartment of Homeland Security bioterrorism risk assessment $ea call for change 210 $aWashington, D. C. $cNational Academies Press$d2008 215 $a1 online resource (xiii, 157 pages) $cillustrations 300 $a"Committee on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security's Biological Agent Risk Analysis, Board on Mathematical Science and their Applications Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, Board on Life Sciences Division on Earth and Life Studies, National Research Council of the National Academies". 311 1 $a0-309-12028-4 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $a""Acknowledgments""; ""Contents""; ""Summary""; ""1 Introduction""; ""2 The Critical Contribution of Risk Analysis to Risk Management and Reduction of Bioterrorism Risk""; ""3 Description and Analysis of the Department of Homeland Security's Biological Threat Risk Assessment of 2006""; ""4 Department of Homeland Security Decision Requirements for Risk Management""; ""5 Risk Assessment for Unknown and Engineered Biothreat Agents""; ""6 Improving Bioterrorism Consequence Assessment"" 327 $a""7 Improving the Department of Homeland Security's Biological Threat Risk Assessment and Adding Risk Management"" ""Appendix A: Lexicon""; ""Appendix B: Mathematical Characterization of the Biological Threat Risk Assessment Event Tree and Risk Assessment""; ""Appendix C: Computational Example Illustrating the Replacement of a Joint Distribution of Arc Probabilities with Marginal Expected Values of Individual Arc Probabilities""; ""Appendix D: Bioterrorism Risk Analysis with Decision Trees"" 327 $a""Appendix E: Optimizing Department of Homeland Security Defense Investments: Applying Defender-Attacker (-Defender) Optimization to Terror Risk Assessment and Mitigation"" ""Appendix F: Combining Game Theory and Risk Analysis in Counterterrorism: A Smallpox Example""; ""Appendix G: On the Quantification of Uncertainty and Enhancing Probabilistic Risk Analysis""; ""Appendix H: Game Theory and Interdependencies""; ""Appendix I: Review of BTRA Modeling""; ""Appendix J: Reprinted Interim Report""; ""Appendix K: Meeting Agendas""; ""Appendix L: Biographies of Committee Members"" 327 $a""Appendix M: Acronyms"" 330 $a"The mission of Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change, the new book from the National Research Council, is to independently and scientifically review the methodology that led to the 2006 Department of Homeland Security report, Bioterrorism Risk Assessment (BTRA) and provide a foundation for future updates. This book identifies a number of fundamental concerns with the BTRA of 2006, ranging from mathematical and statistical mistakes that have corrupted results, to unnecessarily complicated probability models and models with fidelity far exceeding existing data, to more basic questions about how terrorist behavior should be modeled. Rather than merely criticizing what was done in the BTRA of 2006, this new NRC book consults outside experts and collects a number of proposed alternatives that could improve DHS's ability to assess potential terrorist behavior as a key element of risk-informed decision making, and it explains these alternatives in the specific context of the BTRA and the bioterrorism threat."--Publisher's website 606 $aBioterrorism$xMathematical models 606 $aBioterrorism$xRisk assessment 615 0$aBioterrorism$xMathematical models. 615 0$aBioterrorism$xRisk assessment. 676 $a353.6 712 02$aNational Research Council (U.S.).$bBoard on Mathematical Sciences and their Applications.$bCommittee on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security's Biological Agent Risk Analysis. 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910782979103321 996 $aDepartment of Homeland Security bioterrorism risk assessment$93702796 997 $aUNINA