LEADER 03700nam 2200505Ia 450 001 9910781475303321 005 20230725050806.0 010 $a0-8047-8165-6 024 7 $a10.1515/9780804781657 035 $a(CKB)2550000000040757 035 $a(OCoLC)747037973 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebrary10484217 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC3037584 035 $a(DE-B1597)564967 035 $a(DE-B1597)9780804781657 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL3037584 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10484217 035 $a(OCoLC)923700053 035 $a(EXLCZ)992550000000040757 100 $a20101022h20112011 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt$2rdacontent 182 $cc$2rdamedia 183 $acr$2rdacarrier 200 10$aReducing uncertainty$b[electronic resource] $eintelligence analysis and national security /$fThomas Fingar 210 $aStanford, California $cStanford Security Studies$d2011 215 $a1 online resource (192 p.) 311 $a0-8047-7594-X 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references and index. 327 $tFront matter --$tContents --$tAcknowledgments --$t1. Reducing uncertainty --$t2. Myths, fears, and expectations --$t3. Spies collect data, analysts provide insight --$t4. Using intelligence to anticipate opportunities and shape the future --$t5. Estimative analysis: what it is, what it isn?t, and how to read it --$t6. A tale of two estimates --$t7. Epilogue: lessons and challenges --$tNotes --$tIndex 330 $aThe US government spends billions of dollars every year to reduce uncertainty: to monitor and forecast everything from the weather to the spread of disease. In other words, we spend a lot of money to anticipate problems, identify opportunities, and avoid mistakes. A substantial portion of what we spend?over$50 billion a year?goes to the US Intelligence Community. Reducing Uncertainty describes what Intelligence Community analysts do, how they do it, and how they are affected by the political context that shapes, uses, and sometimes abuses their output. In particular, it looks at why IC analysts pay more attention to threats than to opportunities, and why they appear to focus more on warning about the possibility of "bad things" happening than on providing the input necessary for increasing the likelihood of positive outcomes. The book is intended to increase public understanding of what IC analysts do, to elicit more relevant and constructive suggestions for improvement from outside the Intelligence Community, to stimulate innovation and collaboration among analysts at all grade levels in all agencies, and to provide a core resource for students of intelligence. The most valuable aspect of this book is the in-depth discussion of National Intelligence Estimates?what they are, what it means to say that they represent the "most authoritative judgments of the Intelligence Community," why and how they are important, and why they have such high political salience and symbolic importance. The final chapter lays out, from an insider's perspective, the story of the flawed Iraq WMD NIE and its impact on the subsequent Iran nuclear NIE?paying particular attention to the heightened political scrutiny the latter received in Congress following the Iraq NIE debacle. 606 $aIntelligence service$zUnited States 606 $aNational security$zUnited States 615 0$aIntelligence service 615 0$aNational security 676 $a327.1273 700 $aFingar$b Thomas$01116153 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910781475303321 996 $aReducing uncertainty$93838815 997 $aUNINA