LEADER 04253nam 2200709 a 450 001 9910781215303321 005 20230721010316.0 010 $a1-283-22740-1 010 $a9786613227409 010 $a1-4008-3068-0 024 7 $a10.1515/9781400830688 035 $a(CKB)2550000000040049 035 $a(EBL)729939 035 $a(OCoLC)742333325 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000541129 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11356767 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000541129 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10493208 035 $a(PQKB)10659587 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC729939 035 $a(OCoLC)747411209 035 $a(MdBmJHUP)muse36593 035 $a(DE-B1597)446648 035 $a(OCoLC)979881597 035 $a(DE-B1597)9781400830688 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL729939 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10481991 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL322740 035 $a(EXLCZ)992550000000040049 100 $a20081201d2009 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aSecular cycles$b[electronic resource] /$fPeter Turchin and Sergey A. Nefedov 205 $aCourse Book 210 $aPrinceton, N.J. $cPrinceton University Press$dc2009 215 $a1 online resource (360 p.) 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a0-691-13696-3 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references (p. [317]-339) and index. 327 $aIntroduction : the theoretical background -- Medieval England : the Plantagenet cycle (1150-1485) -- Early modern England : the Tudor-Stuart cycle (1485-1730) -- Medieval France : the Capetian cycle (1150-1450) -- Early modern France : the Valois cycle (1450-1660) -- Rome : the Republican cycle (350-30 BCE) -- Rome : the Principate cycle (30 BCE-285 CE) -- Russia : the Muscovy cycle (1460-1620) -- Russia : the Romanov cycle (1620-1922) -- General Conclusions. 330 $aMany historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change. Century-long periods of population expansion come before long periods of stagnation and decline; the dynamics of prices mirror population oscillations; and states go through strong expansionist phases followed by periods of state failure, endemic sociopolitical instability, and territorial loss. Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov explore the dynamics and causal connections between such demographic, economic, and political variables in agrarian societies and offer detailed explanations for these long-term oscillations--what the authors call secular cycles. Secular Cycles elaborates and expands upon the demographic-structural theory first advanced by Jack Goldstone, which provides an explanation of long-term oscillations. This book tests that theory's specific and quantitative predictions by tracing the dynamics of population numbers, prices and real wages, elite numbers and incomes, state finances, and sociopolitical instability. Turchin and Nefedov study societies in England, France, and Russia during the medieval and early modern periods, and look back at the Roman Republic and Empire. Incorporating theoretical and quantitative history, the authors examine a specific model of historical change and, more generally, investigate the utility of the dynamical systems approach in historical applications. An indispensable and groundbreaking resource for a wide variety of social scientists, Secular Cycles will interest practitioners of economic history, historical sociology, complexity studies, and demography. 606 $aPopulation$xMathematical models 606 $aDemography$xMathematical models 606 $aBusiness cycles$xMathematical models 606 $aEconomic development$xMathematical models 615 0$aPopulation$xMathematical models. 615 0$aDemography$xMathematical models. 615 0$aBusiness cycles$xMathematical models. 615 0$aEconomic development$xMathematical models. 676 $a304.6 700 $aTurchin$b Peter$f1957-$0515619 701 $aNefedov$b S. A$g(Sergei? Aleksandrovich)$01519277 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910781215303321 996 $aSecular cycles$93757299 997 $aUNINA