LEADER 06158oam 22012734 450 001 9910779593503321 005 20230802005947.0 010 $a1-61635-702-9 010 $a1-4755-9843-2 010 $a1-283-94779-X 035 $a(CKB)2550000001003744 035 $a(EBL)1607056 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000943222 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11515178 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000943222 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10977688 035 $a(PQKB)10756566 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1607056 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1607056 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10644356 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL426029 035 $a(OCoLC)870245099 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2012270 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2012270 035 $a(EXLCZ)992550000001003744 100 $a20020129d2012 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aOn the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks : $eThe Role of Storage /$fDeren Unalmis, Ibrahim Unalmis, Filiz Unsal 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2012. 215 $a1 online resource (42 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 225 0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/12/270 300 $aAt head of title: Research Department -- verso of t.p. 300 $a"November 2012"-- verso of t.p. 311 $a1-4755-7356-1 311 $a1-4755-8636-1 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 22-25). 327 $aCover; Contents; 1. Introduction; 2. The Model; 2.1 Households; 2.2 Firms and Production; 2.3 Monetary and Fiscal Policy; 2.4 Goods Market Equilibrium; 2.5 Storage and Oil Market Equilibrium; 3. Estimation; 3.1 Data; 3.2 Calibrated Parameters; 3.3 Prior Distributions and Estimation Results; 4. Conclusion; References; Appendix; Tables; 1. Calibrated parameters; 2. Prior distributions and posterior estimates (sample period: 1982Q1-2007Q4); 3. Variance decomposition (sample period: 1982Q1-2007Q4); 4. Variance decomposition (sample period: 2000Q1-2007Q4); Figures 327 $a1. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation positive TFP shock2. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation positive labor productivity shock; 3. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation negative oil supply shock; 4. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation storage demand shock; 5. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation positive TFP shock with and without storage; 6. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation positive labor productivity shock with and without storage; 7. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation negative oil supplywith and without storage 330 3 $aBuilding on recent work on the role of speculation and inventories in oil markets, we embed a competitive oil storage model within a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. This enables us to formally analyze the impact of a (speculative) storage demand shock and to assess how the effects of various demand and supply shocks change in the presence of oil storage facility. We find that business-cycle driven oil demand shocks are the most important drivers of U.S. oil price fluctuations during 1982-2007. Disregarding the storage facility in the model causes a considerable upward bias in the estimated role of oil supply shocks in driving oil price fluctuations. Our results also confirm that a change in the composition of shocks helps explain the resilience of the macroeconomic environment to the oil price surge after 2003. Finally, speculative storage is shown to have a mitigating or amplifying role depending on the nature of the shock. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2012/270 606 $aPetroleum products$xPrices$xEconometric models 606 $aPetroleum products$xStorage 606 $aInvestments: Energy$2imf 606 $aInflation$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aEconomic Theory$2imf 606 $aGeneral Aggregative Models: Keynes$2imf 606 $aKeynesian$2imf 606 $aPost-Keynesian$2imf 606 $aEnergy and the Macroeconomy$2imf 606 $aEnergy: Demand and Supply$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aEnergy: General$2imf 606 $aCommodity Markets$2imf 606 $aPrice Level$2imf 606 $aDeflation$2imf 606 $aAgriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis$2imf 606 $aInvestment & securities$2imf 606 $aEconomic theory & philosophy$2imf 606 $aOil prices$2imf 606 $aOil$2imf 606 $aCommodity price fluctuations$2imf 606 $aSupply shocks$2imf 606 $aCommodities$2imf 606 $aEconomic theory$2imf 606 $aPetroleum industry and trade$2imf 606 $aSupply and demand$2imf 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 0$aPetroleum products$xPrices$xEconometric models. 615 0$aPetroleum products$xStorage. 615 7$aInvestments: Energy 615 7$aInflation 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aEconomic Theory 615 7$aGeneral Aggregative Models: Keynes 615 7$aKeynesian 615 7$aPost-Keynesian 615 7$aEnergy and the Macroeconomy 615 7$aEnergy: Demand and Supply 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aEnergy: General 615 7$aCommodity Markets 615 7$aPrice Level 615 7$aDeflation 615 7$aAgriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis 615 7$aInvestment & securities 615 7$aEconomic theory & philosophy 615 7$aOil prices 615 7$aOil 615 7$aCommodity price fluctuations 615 7$aSupply shocks 615 7$aCommodities 615 7$aEconomic theory 615 7$aPetroleum industry and trade 615 7$aSupply and demand 700 $aUnalmis$b Deren$01509554 701 $aUnalmis$b Ibrahim$01509555 701 $aUnsal$b Filiz$01476615 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund.$bResearch Dept. 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910779593503321 996 $aOn the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks$93804903 997 $aUNINA